@inbook{10.2307/j.ctt5hhjw8.6, ISBN = {9780262014519}, URL = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt5hhjw8.6}, abstract = {Only a few decades ago, overpopulation of the earth was seen to be an imminent threat. Nowadays, growth of the world population still continues but at a much lower pace than had been predicted earlier. It is now expected to almost come to a halt until 2050 (see the 2008 revision of the United Nations Population Division’s forecast, “medium variant”). Starting from 2045, the number of people aged 60 and over may, for the first time in history, exceed the number of children and youths aged less than 15. From then onward, the world population may well start shrinking as}, booktitle = {Fertility and Public Policy: How to Reverse the Trend of Declining Birth Rates}, pages = {1--14}, publisher = {MIT Press}, title = {Fertility and Public Policy: An Introduction}, year = {2011} }