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Power Shift

Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics

EDITED BY David Shambaugh
Copyright Date: 2005
Edition: 1
Pages: 402
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  • Book Info
    Power Shift
    Book Description:

    The dynamics of international relations in Asia are undergoing broad and fundamental changes that are reverberating around the world. Primary among the catalysts of change in the region is the rise of China as the engine of regional economic growth, as a major military power, as a significant voice in regional diplomacy, and as a proactive power in multilateral institutions. With in-depth assessments by seventeen of the world’s leading experts on China’s foreign relations, this groundbreaking volume offers the most timely, up-to-date, and comprehensive analysis of China’s emerging influence on international relations in Asia. The contributors explore the various dimensions of China’s rise, its influence on the region, the consequences for the United States, and alternative models of the evolving Asian order. What emerges is a clear picture of China increasingly at the center of the regional web; while North Korean and Taiwan could erupt in conflict, the predominant trend in Asia is the creation of an extensive web of mutual interdependence among states and non-state actors. Providing the best overview we currently have of the changing political balance on the Asian continent, this accessible volume will be essential reading for anyone concerned with contemporary Asian affairs.

    eISBN: 978-0-520-93902-8
    Subjects: Anthropology

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-vi)
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. vii-viii)
  3. List of Figures, Maps, and Tables
    (pp. ix-x)
    (pp. xi-xii)
    David Shambaugh
  5. List of Contributors
    (pp. xiii-xx)
  6. Introduction: The Rise of China and Asia’s New Dynamics
    (pp. 1-20)
    David Shambaugh

    Asia is changing, and China is a principal cause. The structure of power and parameters of interactions that have characterized international relations in the Asian region over the last half century are being fundamentally affected by, among other factors, China’s growing economic and military power, rising political influence, distinctive diplomatic voice, and increasing involvement in regional multilateral institutions. This volume offers an in-depth and careful assessment of China’s new behavior and linkages with the region. The study further examines the impact that China’s rise, in all of its dimensions, is having on the international relations of Asia, and the implications...


    • 1 Return to the Middle Kingdom? China and Asia in the Early Twenty-First Century
      (pp. 23-47)
      David Shambaugh

      The tectonic plates of power that have characterized Asia for half a century are shifting, and China may be returning to its traditional role as the central actor in Asia. As China has continued to accrue the traditional attributes of power, its influence in the region has also steadily increased. China’s neighbors are increasingly looking to Beijing for regional leadership, or, at a minimum, they are taking account of China’s interests and concerns. China’s own diplomacy has grown more confident, omnidirectional, and proactive; its economy is now a major engine of regional growth; its military is steadily modernizing; and its...

    • 2 China’s Regional Strategy
      (pp. 48-68)
      Zhang Yunling and Tang Shiping

      In the past few years, both Chinese and foreign analysts have begun to reach the conclusion that China has developed a fairly consistent and coherent grand strategy in the past decade, even though they may disagree somewhat on the nature and content of that grand strategy.¹ Assuming that China’s regional strategy reflects and supports China’s grand strategy, this chapter will offer an assessment of China’s regional strategy. Because China is a regional power with very limited global interests, we also presume that China’s regional strategy largely corresponds to its grand strategy.

      This chapter will first briefly describe China’s grand strategy...


    • 3 China’s Regional Trade and Investment Profile
      (pp. 71-95)
      Hideo Ohashi

      China’s rise at the turn of the century marks a new stage in East Asian economics. China’s economy grew at an average annual rate of more than 9 percent for almost a quarter of a century after an about-face in development strategy in the late 1970s, making China the world’s sixth largest economy in 2002. Sharing an outward-looking development strategy with neighboring economies in East Asia contributed greatly to China’s economic success. By becoming engaged with the world economy, China’s economy became more efficient and market-oriented. In 2002, China ranked fifth in exports¹ and practically first in attracting foreign direct...

    • 4 China’s Regional Economies and the Asian Region: Building Interdependent Linkages
      (pp. 96-132)
      Robert F. Ash

      The spectacular impact of more than two decades of economic reform in China is not in doubt. Not the least dramatic aspect of such reforms has been the transformation of China’s foreign economic relations through the implementation of a radical open-door strategy.¹ This development has introduced a new and major force shaping regional economic trajectories, even if the suggestion that Asia has already become Sinocentric remains premature.

      This chapter addresses China’s foreign trade and FDI from an internal regional perspective. A major underlying theme is the extent to which distinctive regional patterns of foreign economic relations are emerging within China....


    • 5 China-Japan Relations: Downward Spiral or a New Equilibrium?
      (pp. 135-150)
      Mike M. Mochizuki

      Recent bilateral frictions on a variety of economic, historical, and security issues have suggested that relations between China and Japan are becoming increasingly competitive and conflictual. With China on the rise and Japan in relative decline, some have argued that China and Japan are now engaged in an intense rivalry for regional leadership. Others believe that this relationship is now on a downward spiral and could even have destabilizing consequences for the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast to this pessimistic view, this chapter will argue that while China-Japan relations are now in a period of adjustment, these two major powers of...

    • 6 China’s Ascendancy and the Korean Peninsula: From Interest Reevaluation to Strategic Realignment?
      (pp. 151-169)
      Jae Ho Chung

      China has so far pulled off one of the most successful economic reforms recorded in the twentieth century. Its success has been so remarkable that China has been elevated to the status of an “economic giant”(jingji daguo),if not the “biggest new variable in the global equation.”¹ In accordance with its growing power, China has assumed increasing responsibilities in regional affairs. Beijing attracted international attention with its responsible fiscal policy during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, when China maintained the value of its currency.² And, by hosting the three-and six-party talks in 2003, China also demonstrated...

    • 7 Taiwan Faces China: Attraction and Repulsion
      (pp. 170-186)
      Richard Bush

      In May 1996, on the occasion of his second inauguration as president of the Republic of China, Lee Teng-hui offered a unique view on how Taiwan mattered for China. He recalled that China had suffered a series of shocks in its encounter with the West, despite an excellent traditional culture. He expressed the hope that the people of Taiwan would foster a new Chinese culture that combined the best of the West with Chinese heritage. He went so far as to draw an analogy between the seminal role that the Wei River valley (the central plains,zhongyuan) had played in...

    • 8 China and Southeast Asia: The Context of a New Beginning
      (pp. 187-204)
      Wang Gungwu

      At the outset of the twenty-first century, Southeast Asia’s relations with China appear to be the best they have been in at least half a century. In some countries, “China fever” seems to be replacing “China fear,” and many look forward to the new “strategic partnership” and Free Trade Area being forged between China and ASEAN. Although this turn of events is significant, future relationships do not only depend on contemporary developments, but they must also be placed in the larger historical context (chapters 1–4 in this volume capably and sufficiently cover contemporary China–Southeast Asian relations).

      On the...

    • 9 China’s Influence in Central and South Asia: Is It Increasing?
      (pp. 205-227)
      John W. Garver

      Has China’s relative influence in Central and South Asia increased since 1978? If so, to what extent? How have the major shifts in the international system since 1978—the breakup of the USSR in 1991 and the U.S. response to the September 11, 2001, attacks—affected China’s relative influence? These are the questions addressed by this chapter.¹

      No attempt will be made to evaluate the ends for which Chinese influence has been used. The focus, rather, will be on the instruments of Chinese influence—on the things that China has done that give it the ability to influence developments in...

    • 10 China and Russia: Normalizing Their Strategic Partnership
      (pp. 228-244)
      Yu Bin

      For China, normal relations with Russia have been both the precursor to, and the underpinning of, its regional policy during the reform decades.¹ This is in sharp contrast to the Sino-Soviet rivalry during the Cold War, when China was widely described as “a regional power without a regional policy,” or an Asian power without an Asian policy.² It is within this broad context of China’s relations with its neighbors that recent Sino-Russian relations are examined. This chapter briefly examines how China forever lost its “periphery” in modern times, and why it was unable to formulate any meaningful regional policy during...


    • 11 China’s Evolving Regional Security Strategy
      (pp. 247-265)
      Bates Gill

      This chapter examines China’s evolving regional security strategy, which is defined principally as Beijing’s contemporary political and diplomatic efforts (not strictly its military posture) with its immediate regional neighbors, which are devised to foster a long-term security environment consistent with Chinese interests. After a brief overview of the assumptions, goals, and principles of China’s regional security strategy, the chapter examines how these are expressed in practice around China’s periphery, with an emphasis on four important trends that define China’s evolving regional security strategy. The chapter concludes that while current trends favor a strengthened regional security role for China, and China’s...

    • 12 China’s Regional Military Posture
      (pp. 266-286)
      Michael D. Swaine

      Some observers of Asia increasingly emphasize the growing importance of globalization and the forces of political, diplomatic, economic, social, and cultural change as key factors shaping the future of the region. Although such variables are unquestionably significant, the history of Asia, past experience concerning changes in the larger international system, and much of our conceptual understanding of how nations interact to shape their environment clearly indicate that military power remains a critical determinant of the security perceptions and behavior of all nations, and hence of the larger Asian and global systems.

      In the case of China, military power has historically...


    • 13 China’s Regional Strategy and Why It May Not Be Good for America
      (pp. 289-305)
      Robert Sutter

      Chinese foreign policy has long focused on Asia, and the Chinese leadership has been developing a relatively pragmatic approach to China’s Asian neighbors for more than twenty years.¹ While China’s security concerns have long centered on Asia, its military power has not extended much into the region. China’s political and cultural influence has been strongest in Asia, and the largest proportion of its foreign trade has been conducted with Asian neighbors. In the post-Mao period, even though China grew into a global political and economic actor, its foreign policy was still concerned predominantly with Asia.

      In the 1980s, Chinese leaders...

    • 14 China’s Rise in Asia Need Not Be at America’s Expense
      (pp. 306-326)
      David M. Lampton

      Farewell to verities about China’s foreign policy behavior in Asia and beyond. As China’s power has increased there have been, and will continue to be, important changes in how Beijing defines its interests, the kinds and mixes of power it employs to achieve its ends, the effectiveness of its policies, and the structure of the East Asian regional system. These changes require alterations in U. S. policy and behavior at the same time that China is developing a stake in a stable yet dynamic status quo in East Asia and beyond. East Asia is not becoming Sinocentric, but it is...


    • 15 The Transformation of the Asian Security Order: Assessing China’s Impact
      (pp. 329-346)
      Jonathan D. Pollack

      A major transition in Asian security is underway in the early twenty-first century, with China at the epicenter of this process. Depending on future events and policy developments, regional security could undergo change that is more profound than at any time since the early years of the Cold War. American global primacy and the Bush administration’s redesign of U.S. national security strategy; regional responses to U.S. predominance; the economic, technological, and military emergence of major regional powers, especially China and India; and a political and institutional maturation across Asia are the principal manifestations of such change. The possibility of an...

    • 16 The Evolving Asian Order: The Accommodation of Rising Chinese Power
      (pp. 347-362)
      Michael Yahuda

      China has entered the twenty-first century as the rising power in Asia. As it rises, China becomes increasingly integrated into the region not only in terms of economics, but also in terms of politics. The rise of the Chinese economy and the deepening of its significance as a key driver of the East Asian economy and the impact of China’s growing military power on regional security are treated elsewhere in this volume. China’s political integration in the region is perhaps less well known and appreciated, and shall be considered in this concluding chapter.

      Historically, rising powers have been regarded as...

  13. Index
    (pp. 363-383)