The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security

The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States and U.S. Army

F. Stephen Larrabee
Peter A. Wilson
John Gordon
Copyright Date: 2015
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 66
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  • Book Info
    The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security
    Book Description:

    In the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and attempt to destabilize eastern Ukraine, the United States will have to reexamine the basic premises of its European policy. The requirement that NATO may have to build a more robust deterrence and defense posture in Eastern Europe would require the Army and Air Force to revisit their planning assumptions that have minimized the U.S. military commitments to the region since the end of the Cold War.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-9140-6
    Subjects: History, Political Science

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-iv)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  4. Summary
    (pp. vii-xii)
  5. Acknowledgments
    (pp. xiii-xiv)
  6. Abbreviations
    (pp. xv-xvi)
  7. CHAPTER ONE Introduction
    (pp. 1-2)

    Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex Crimea and to destabilize eastern Ukraine has sparked widespread concern among Western policymakers that Russia has embarked on a more confrontational policy that could have far-reaching implications for Russia’s relations with the West and for European stability.

    The annexation of Crimea challenges two basic assumptions on which U.S. policy toward Europe in the post–Cold War era has been based: (1) that Europe is essentially stable and secure, thereby freeing the United States to focus greater attention on other areas, particularly Asia and the Middle East, and (2) that Russia had become more of a...

  8. CHAPTER TWO The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis
    (pp. 3-16)

    At its core, the current crisis is about Ukraine’s future strategic orientation—whether Kiev will be allowed to freely choose its own independent foreign policy or will be compelled to remain within Russia’s sphere of influence. Ukraine’s future orientation will also influence Russia’s long-term geostrategic orientation and political path. Without Ukraine, as Zbigniew Brzezinski has pointed out, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.1 However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine, Russia automatically regains the wherewithal to become an imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.

    In addition, Ukraine poses an important potential politicalideological threat to Putin’s model of authoritarian state...

  9. CHAPTER THREE Implications for the United States
    (pp. 17-40)

    Under Putin, Russia has become a revisionist state. Putin believes that the European security order that emerged at the end of the Cold War does not reflect Russia’s interests. He wants to refashion it in ways that are more compatible with Russian interests and restore what he sees as Russia’s rightful place in Europe. He regards the post-Soviet space as a sphere of Russia’s “privileged interest” and seeks to block the penetration of this space by Western values and institutions—not only NATO but also the European Union.

    What is emerging is a “Cool War.” This “Cool War” is quite...

  10. CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions and Implications for the U.S. Army
    (pp. 41-46)

    Even if the current turbulence in Europe, the Greater Middle East, and East Asia prompts the U.S. Congress to agree with the White House to reverse the spending cuts mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 (Pub. L. 112–25), U.S. topline defense spending is likely to remain constrained. Therefore, the U.S. defense leadership will have to devise a strategy that enables it to address the increased demands from NATO to shore up its deterrence and defense posture in Eastern Europe in the face of a revisionist Russia, as well as meet its commitments elsewhere in the world, all...

  11. Bibliography
    (pp. 47-50)