Promoting International Energy Security

Promoting International Energy Security: Volume 2, Turkey and the Caspian

Andrew S. Weiss
F. Stephen Larrabee
James T. Bartis
Camille A. Sawak
Copyright Date: 2012
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 64
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  • Book Info
    Promoting International Energy Security
    Book Description:

    The Caspian region has a wealth of crude oil and natural gas. Turkey aspires to be a key player in transporting oil and gas from the Caspian area to world markets. This hope is challenged by commercial and regional issues, terrorist threats, and the potential for disruption of tanker traffic in the Bosporus. Helping Turkey build its capacity for pipeline security and maritime disaster response is a promising yet modest area for USAF engagement.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-7977-0
    Subjects: Business, History, Political Science

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-iv)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  4. Figures
    (pp. vii-viii)
  5. Tables
    (pp. ix-x)
  6. Summary
    (pp. xi-xiv)
  7. Acknowledgments
    (pp. xv-xvi)
  8. Abbreviations
    (pp. xvii-xviii)
  9. Prologue
    (pp. 1-4)

    This volume reports on exploratory research undertaken as part of broader study directed at energy security and how it affects U.S. Air Force (USAF) planning. That broader study examined the world oil market, how developments in that market might affect “wholesale” supplies of jet fuel, and what measures the Air Force might take to protect itself against high fuel prices and supply disruptions, as documented in Bartis, 2012. To better examine the potential role of the Air Force in promoting international energy security, we conducted three exploratory studies. The first, documented here, addresses the Caspian and Turkey. The second addresses...

  10. CHAPTER ONE Introduction
    (pp. 5-8)

    The Caspian region boasts some of the world’s largest natural gas and crude oil reserves. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the landlocked region has become a major target for energy exploration and production. However, inadequate upstream investment and export infrastructure are keeping output below its full potential and limiting access to world markets. Russia is attempting to restrict how Caspian energy resources are developed and transported to world markets. Yet Russia’s grip has loosened over time as such countries as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan pursue aggressive energy development and pipeline projects led by firms from China, the...

  11. CHAPTER TWO Overview of Current Energy Issues
    (pp. 9-18)

    The Caspian–Central Asia region holds 48 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. We estimate that total recoverable petroleum resources are roughly 2.5 times this amount.¹ As Table 2.1 illustrates, energy resources are spread unevenly throughout the region. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have the largest recoverable oil reserves. Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth largest natural gas reserves; its 8.1 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of proven reserves are the energy equivalent of over 50 billion barrels of crude oil. For the region, we estimate total recoverable natural gas at roughly 40 tcm. Neither Kyrgyzstan, home to the U.S. transit center at Manas,...

  12. CHAPTER THREE Key Energy Security Challenges
    (pp. 19-28)

    Europe faces a major energy security challenge due to its growing appetite for imported natural gas, particularly from Russia. Attention has focused in recent years on the Caspian region as a possible alternative to Europe’s current supply arrangements. For EU and U.S. advocates of a southern gas corridor, a new transit route for Caspian gas through Turkey would have important energy security and geostrategic implications. This effort would allow Europe to diversify the sources of its gas supplies while creating long-term economic and political bonds with Turkey and Caspian energy producers.

    The trends driving Europe’s increased dependence on natural gas...

  13. CHAPTER FOUR Threats to Energy Production and Transit Routes
    (pp. 29-32)

    Threats to energy facilities, transportation infrastructure, and energy flows in the Caspian and Turkey take several forms. Terrorism is a major threat in Turkey where the June 2010 collapse of a 14-month unilateral PKK cease-fire was punctuated by back-to-back attacks on oil and gas pipelines from Iraq and Iran. The problem is particularly acute in the southeast, where a large portion of Turkey’s Kurds reside. Here, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has been hit repeatedly, as shown in Table 4.1. Turkey and Iraq have struggled for many years to increase the amount of oil flowing through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline and to...

  14. CHAPTER FIVE Current U.S. Energy Security Efforts
    (pp. 33-36)

    The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, and the war in Afghanistan dramatically transformed U.S. interests in and policy toward the Caucasus and Central Asia. For the past nine years, defense and military cooperation has been the centerpiece of U.S. engagement with the countries of the region, facilitating access to important military bases and creation of an extensive logistics network. Yet the overriding focus on Afghanistan has led to the downgrading of other U.S. interests, a dynamic that has not been lost on U.S. partners in the region. As Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov aptly put it, “Our attitude...

  15. CHAPTER SIX Potential U.S. Air Force Roles
    (pp. 37-38)

    The future involvement of USAF on energy security issues in the Caspian and Turkey region will largely be based on the types of threats to energy infrastructure that prospective partners face and their level of interest in deeper engagement with the United States. In the Caspian basin, any major expansion of bilateral defense and military cooperation is unlikely because of the relatively benign security environment and the inhibiting effects of Russia’s, Iran’s, and China’s unease about the U.S. military presence in the region. Such partners as Kazakhstan or Turkmenistan are likely to remain reticent about the potential expansion of cooperative...

  16. Bibliography
    (pp. 39-46)