Promoting International Energy Security

Promoting International Energy Security: Volume 4, The Gulf of Guinea

Stuart E. Johnson
Caroline Baxter
James T. Bartis
Duncan Long
Copyright Date: 2012
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 70
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  • Book Info
    Promoting International Energy Security
    Book Description:

    Nigeria is an important oil producer, but security shortfalls impede oil production and new investment. Important new finds of oil and natural gas have been reported in the territorial waters of Nigeria and nearby nations. Making the offshore petroleum infrastructure more secure would promote additional oil field investment, leading to greater production. The U.S. Air Force has expertise that could help build local security capabilities.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-7979-4
    Subjects: Political Science, Business

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-iv)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  4. Figures
    (pp. vii-viii)
  5. Tables
    (pp. ix-x)
  6. Summary
    (pp. xi-xii)

    Nine nations border the Gulf of Guinea: Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, São Tome and Principe, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Certain of these nations important sources of petroleum for the world market, producing a total of 2.9 million barrels per day, which is 3.5 percent of global petroleum production. For logistical reasons, the main destinations of petroleum exports from the Gulf of Guinea are the United States and Europe. Tanker transit to refineries on the East and Gulf coasts of the United States and to Europe is relatively short and has the added advantage of not passing through...

  7. Acknowledgments
    (pp. xiii-xiv)
  8. Abbreviations
    (pp. xv-xvi)
  9. Prologue
    (pp. 1-4)

    This volume reports on exploratory research undertaken as part of broader study directed at energy security and how it affects U.S. Air Force (USAF) planning. That broader study examined the world oil market, how developments in that market might affect “wholesale” supplies of jet fuel, and what measures the Air Force might take to protect itself against high fuel prices and supply disruptions, as documented in Bartis, 2012. To better examine the potential role of the Air Force in promoting international energy security, we conducted three exploratory studies. The first addresses the Caspian and Turkey and is documented in Weiss...

  10. CHAPTER ONE Introduction
    (pp. 5-8)

    Nigeria and its neighbors in the Gulf of Guinea are important sources of petroleum for the Atlantic Basin (Figure 1.1).¹ In 2010, production was about 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the bulk of which was exported (Energy Information Administration [EIA], 2011). This amount is 3.5 percent of the global output of liquid fuels.² Proven reserves of crude oil in this region represent 3.3 percent of the global total. With large untapped resources of oil and natural gas, these nations have the potential to expand their output significantly. For example, an oil field estimated to hold well over 2 billion...

  11. CHAPTER TWO Hydrocarbon Resources and Production
    (pp. 9-16)

    The Gulf of Guinea holds 43 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, but the region is underexplored, and geologists estimate the total recoverable petroleum resources to be roughly triple this amount.¹ As Table 2.1 illustrates, the proven reserves are concentrated in Nigeria. Limited exploration beyond the Niger Delta is very likely the primary reason for the very low proven reserve levels that have been recorded for the other nations in the region. We anticipate substantial growth in the proven reserves of countries in other parts of the Gulf as exploration progresses from 2011 to 2021.

    Likewise, Nigeria is recorded as...

  12. CHAPTER THREE The Security Threat to Nigerian Hydrocarbon Production
    (pp. 17-24)

    Security problems center on oil bunkering (tapping a pipeline to steal oil), attacks on the petroleum infrastructure, and kidnappings of oil personnel. These problems have reduced output of and restrained investment in Nigeria’s energy sector. One notable attack, in January 2006 on a Shell facility in the Niger Delta, caused a 250,000-bpd drop in Nigerian oil production and a temporary spike in world oil prices (Junger, 2007). The Air Force itself cannot counter bunkering or kidnapping.

    Both threats are inherently deterrence problems that rely on local information and intelligence that only the Nigerian government can gather. The options for partnering...

  13. CHAPTER FOUR Nigeria’s Armed Forces
    (pp. 25-30)

    Nigeria’s police and armed forces have not proven equal to securing the energy infrastructure. Most members of the Nigerian armed forces are undertrained and underequipped. Each of the three branches also suffers from varying levels of corruption and mismanagement. Moreover, in the Niger Delta, the task is daunting. Shell alone has more than 3,720 miles of oil and gas pipelines in the creeks, as well as 90 oil fields and 73 flow stations—a vast infrastructure to secure (Junger, 2007). This chapter presents a brief overview of current status of the Nigeria’s military forces, as relevant to petroleum infrastructure protection....

  14. CHAPTER FIVE U.S. Air Force Roles in Promoting Energy Security
    (pp. 31-40)

    This concluding chapter examines the contributions that the U.S. Air Force could make to energy security in the Gulf of Guinea. Our emphasis is on Nigeria, for good reason: it produces the bulk of the region’s energy, has the greatest potential for increasing production, and faces an active threat to its energy-producing infrastructure. Further, because of its large population, large area, and abundant natural resources, Nigeria will play a key, if not the dominant, role in future political, social, and economic development of West Africa.

    Based on petroleum and natural gas production trends, the threat assessment, and current Nigerian military...

  15. APPENDIX A Analysis of Potential Aerial Operations
    (pp. 41-46)
  16. APPENDIX B Perspectives of American Oil Companies
    (pp. 47-48)
  17. Bibliography
    (pp. 49-54)