China and India, 2025

China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment

Charles Wolf
Siddhartha Dalal
Julie DaVanzo
Eric V. Larson
Alisher Akhmedjonov
Harun Dogo
Meilinda Huang
Silvia Montoya
Copyright Date: 2011
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 170
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  • Book Info
    China and India, 2025
    Book Description:

    China and India, the world's two most populous countries, will exercise increasing influence in international affairs in the coming decades. This document assesses the relative prospects of China and India through 2025 in four domains: demography, macroeconomics, science and technology, and defense spending and procurement. In each domain, the authors try to answer the following questions: Who is ahead? By how much? and Why?

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-5886-7
    Subjects: History, Political Science

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-iv)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-viii)
  4. Figures
    (pp. ix-x)
  5. Tables
    (pp. xi-xii)
  6. Summary
    (pp. xiii-xx)
  7. Acknowledgments
    (pp. xxi-xxii)
  8. Abbreviations
    (pp. xxiii-xxiv)
  9. CHAPTER ONE Objectives, Background, Context
    (pp. 1-6)

    The purpose of this document is to assess the relative levels, attainments, and prospects of China and India through 2025 in four domains: demography, macroeconomics, science and technology, and defense spending and procurement. We also seek to identify impediments and constraints that each country will confront in these domains through the next 15 years. Simply stated, we try to answer, or at least shed light on, the following questions: Who is ahead? By how much? and Why?

    As the second of these questions implies, we mainly, although not exclusively, strive for quantitative answers. At the same time, we repeatedly acknowledge...

  10. CHAPTER TWO Population Trends in China and India: Demographic Dividend or Demographic Drag?
    (pp. 7-36)

    Although China is currently more economically advanced than India, its population is, on average, much older than India’s. Might this be a “demographic drag” that limits China’s economic prospects relative to those of India? Might India, whose population is both younger and growing relative to that of China, experience a “demographic dividend” from these trends? In this chapter, we review recent demographic trends in India and China and their implications. Our focus is on the years 2020–2025; to put this period in perspective, we show data for the years 2000–2035. We mostly rely on data from the U.S....

  11. CHAPTER THREE China-India: A Macroeconomic Assessment
    (pp. 37-54)

    Economic growth in China and India has become a particular focus of attention in Asia, in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, in the G-20, and in the global economy. In recent decades, growth in both countries has exceeded expectations. Between 1980 and 2008, China recorded an average annual growth in GDP of 9 percent, while India’s growth during the same period was about 6 percent. Both countries face the challenge of sustaining such high rates of growth. This chapter summarizes a meta-analysis of growth estimates for China and India for the period through 2025 by three sources: academic scholars,...

  12. CHAPTER FOUR Science and Technology
    (pp. 55-78)

    Scientific research, invention, and innovation are key drivers of economic growth. During the past three decades, R&D investment in the world economy has been concentrated in 30 countries, all of which are members of the OECD (National Science Foundation, 2007a). Nevertheless, global R&D structures and innovation are undergoing transition, and there is strong evidence that patterns of research and innovation are changing (OECD, 2008a).

    The main dimensions of this change are (1) the absolute growth in total R&D activity, (2) the rise of particular emerging market economies—especially China and India—in terms of not only their economic size, but...

  13. CHAPTER FIVE Chinese and Indian Defense and Defense Procurement Spending to 2025
    (pp. 79-102)

    As discussed in previous chapters, just as India’s and China’s endowments—vast populations, growing and increasingly sophisticated and diversified economies, and growing technology sectors—contribute to their growing strategic importance, so too do their substantial and growing defense capabilities. Accordingly, understanding the outlook for Indian and Chinese long-term defense and defense procurement is a crucial dimension of our comparative assessment of the two countries. In this chapter, we summarize our comparative analysis and forecasts of Chinese and Indian defense and defense procurement spending through 2025.

    The main findings can be briefly stated as follows:

    The most likely outcome in 2025...

  14. CHAPTER SIX Conclusions and Implications
    (pp. 103-112)

    Two centuries ago, Edmund Burke advised a British parliamentarian: “Never plan the future by the past.”¹ His admonition recalls a more recent truism, often attributed to Yogi Berra: “It’s dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future!”

    Unfortunately, the four-dimensional assessment summarized in this report violates both of these precepts. We have used data from the past and the present to make forecasts about the future. Consequently, we should reiterate the caveats mentioned earlier about the uncertainties surrounding our forecasts.

    The enormous uncertainty involved in a comparative assessment of the status and performance of China and India 15 years from...

  15. APPENDIX A Meta-Analysis of Economic Growth in China and India
    (pp. 113-114)
  16. APPENDIX B Detailed Calculations for, and Additional Figures Showing, the Projections in Chapter Four
    (pp. 115-124)
  17. APPENDIX C Analytic Tables
    (pp. 125-130)
  18. References
    (pp. 131-145)
  19. Back Matter
    (pp. 146-146)