U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan's Status

U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan's Status

Roger Cliff
David A. Shlapak
Copyright Date: 2007
Edition: 1
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 38
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  • Book Info
    U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan's Status
    Book Description:

    Although the question of Taiwan's status may not be resolved soon, considering various outcomes and their possible effects on U.S.-China relations is useful. Ten trajectories for the resolution of Taiwan's status are given, with effects on U.S.-China relations ranging from close cooperation to cold war. As China's military capabilities grow, it will become more difficult but more important to prevent Beijing from trying to use force against Taiwan.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-4266-8
    Subjects: Political Science

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-vi)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. vii-viii)
  4. Figure and Tables
    (pp. ix-x)
  5. Summary
    (pp. xi-xii)
  6. Acknowledgements
    (pp. xiii-xiv)
  7. CHAPTER ONE Near-Term Prospects
    (pp. 1-4)

    At present, the most obvious and likely source of conflict between the United States and China is Taiwan. This has prompted many to wonder what might cause conflict between the United States and China if Taiwan’s current uncertain status were to be resolved. Resolution of Taiwan’s status, however, would not necessarily eliminate the possibility of tension or even conflict between Washington and Beijing. Indeed, perhaps the dominant determinant of the likelihood of conflict between the United States and China after resolution of Taiwan’s status would be preciselyhowthat status was resolved. It is useful, therefore, to examine the ways...

  8. CHAPTER TWO Longer-Term Possibilities
    (pp. 5-18)

    This chapter describes ten logical possibilities for the China-Taiwan situation, which are depicted in tree form in Figure 2.1. As shown, six of the possibilities involve violence, and four—including the continuation of the current peaceful status quo—do not. Of the cases that turn violent, the United States chooses to engage actively in Taiwan’s defense in three and to abstain from involvement in the other three.¹

    In this situation, the current circumstances of an unresolved but peaceful cross-strait conundrum continue indefinitely. China continues to claim Taiwan as part of its territory and implicitly threatens to use force to achieve...

  9. CHAPTER THREE Observations
    (pp. 19-22)

    Tables 3.1 and 3.2 lay out the cases discussed above and their basic implications for subsequent U.S.-China relations. Table 3.1 shows the nonviolent cases; Table 3.2 shows the trajectories involving Chinese use of force. As can be seen, although there are ten primary ways in which Taiwan’s status could be resolved, there are only about five distinctly different outcomes for Sino-U.S. relations:

    a continuation of the current situation of strong economic ties and some diplomatic cooperation, but also a possibility of war

    a relationship that is essentially cooperative in all areas because Taiwan has voluntarily accepted unification with mainland China...

  10. Bibliography
    (pp. 23-24)