The Department of Defense (DoD) is operating at a time when it must carefully balance resources to recapitalize major equipment—all while mitigating operational risk. DoD is carefully examining its discretionary resources to accomplish this task. One such resource that is being closely examined is the DoD workforce.

The initial manpower guidance for the DoD was published in 1954 and was not modified for 50 years. Prior to 1954, approaches to manpower determination could best be described as heuristics. For example, in the early 1900s, the Navy used a manpower equation based on ship tonnage (100 enlisted and five officers...

The primary focus of this monograph is on current and recent research related to fiscally informed Total Force manpower requirements. However, a brief summary of the history of this research can provide perspective on the ways in which the U.S. military’s approach to manpower requirements has changed over time, reflecting the conditions of a particular time. Such a perspective can hopefully inform current policymaking, as decisionmakers face similar issues in the current day. This section reviews some of the historical trends in manpower requirements studies, with a particular emphasis on the RAND database of publications on the subject.¹

A number...

A review of publicly available manpower requirements studies reveals a wide range of study types. Some studies focus on a narrow aspect of the requirements determination process, such as a specific organization or function, whereas others take a broad approach, examining the manpower requirements process for the entire Navy, for example. Some studies read more like descriptive histories than prescriptive proposals. For these reasons, a taxonomy of manpower requirements studies can provide analysts and policymakers with a useful way of understanding and categorizing the types of reports that have been produced. We identified several points of differentiation among manpower studies...

This chapter summarizes our observations based on the taxonomy in the previous chapter and the studies themselves.

More than 95 percent (26 of 27) of the studies we reviewed were performed by a party external to or separate from the organization being studied. Use of external evaluators appears to be a good practice. For example, in a study dealing largely with “human systems integration analysis,” the GAO suggested that the Navy conduct such assessments and analyses to optimize crew size using the Human Systems Integration Directorate.¹ Optimally, such an external evaluator would study an organization and its operating environment and...

As stated previously, DoD manpower guidance has existed in its present form for slightly longer than 50 years. Significant policy changes (e.g., the AVF, Total Force policy) have occurred every 10 to 15 years over that time frame. But the basic guidance has been reasonably constant:

Use minimum manpower to provide maximum effectiveness.

Periodically evaluate policies, procedures, and structures.

Maintain the lowest practicable level of manpower in support functions.

Use the least-costly mix of personnel.

What has occurred with respect to manpower tradeoffs over this 50-year time frame? Multiple tradeoffs are discernible. We do not know whether these tradeoffs were...

We were asked to review a number of studies to see whether they demonstrated methods that would be useful for other organizations in making fiscally informed manpower decisions. We did not ascertain one or more measures of “successful” or best studies. Instead, we observed studies that appeared useful in that they provided information and insights, allowed decisionmaking, and described tradeoffs. The success of these individual studies had to be defined by the person who chartered the study. Many methods were suggested in the studies we reviewed. Moreover, those who conduct external studies typically use proprietary methods. Our conclusion, based on...