To any time-traveling student of the Soviet Union or Russia watcher of the 1990s, today’s Russia would be unrecognizable. The Russia that has emerged today as a foreign policy challenge for the United States is significantly different from the Russia of recent decades. Stunning economic growth since the ruble crisis of 1998 has translated into extraordinary increases in personal incomes and consumption. Average per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Russia has grown from $1,312 in 1999 to $8,842 in 2007.¹ Despite the worries driven by the economic downturn that became evident in late 2008, there is every reason to...

Knowledge of Russia’s key domestic issues is useful to developing an understanding of Russia’s foreign policy. Domestic politics inform, influence, and constrain the foreign policy–making process and its outcomes. This chapter begins by examining changes and trends related to Russia’s domestic political scene and decisionmaking structures. Political and institutional changes undertaken by Putin over the past eight years have altered both how the government functions and how it interacts with Russian society. As decisionmaking and power structures in Russia continue to shift, these changes will affect Russian policies at home and abroad. The chapter then considers potential sources of...

The previous chapter addressed the domestic issues that will influence and shape Russian foreign and security policies in coming years. This chapter assesses the resources that the Russian leadership might have at its disposal in the coming decades. The chapter first estimates the likely trajectory of Russian economic growth and analyzes the current and future role of energy in the Russian economy. The chapter then turns more directly to implications for defense and security spending, addressing recent and likely future security spending by Russia. We conclude the chapter with an assessment of the financial and commercial health of the Russian...

Russian leaders and policymakers most often characterize Russian foreign policy as focused on two fundamental goals: Russia’s desire to increase its global influence and to see its recent economic growth continue. To an extent, this is an accurate reflection of Russian approaches. The ways in which these goals are translated into policy, however, belie the simplicity of such statements. This chapter begins by discussing how various Russian policymakers and analysts view Russia’s global environment and foreign policy priorities and choices. We then look at the broad implications of Russia’s stated priority on economic growth. Next, we turn to Russia’s interests...

As we have discussed, Russia can spend a good deal on its defense and security and has increasingly done so. It has also undertaken aspects of military reform. To what extent, however, is Russia’s defense planning in line with Russia’s interests and threat perceptions? This chapter begins by examining Russia’s stated and apparent security doctrine and goals. It then considers just how much manpower will be available for defense in coming years. After this, it assesses the directions and capabilities of Russia’s counterterror, naval, ground, and air forces. This chapter concludes by addressing Russia’s evolving attitudes toward its nuclear arsenal...

The United States’ relationship with the Russian Federation will continue to be complex, multifaceted, and not infrequently confrontational over the next decade. Although Russia and the United States share some interests in the foreign policy realm, their priorities are poorly aligned. Areas where the United States seeks Russian cooperation—such as combating transnational threats and efforts to halt the nuclear weapons programs of North Korea and Iran—are lower, though still important, priorities for Russia. Russian goals of building influence and respect globally and in its neighborhood are met with resistance from the United States, which also consistently criticizes Russia’s...