Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future

Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future: Near-Term Decisions from a Strategic Perspective

Steven W. Popper
Claude Berrebi
James Griffin
Thomas Light
Endy Y. Min
Keith Crane
Copyright Date: 2009
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 186
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/mg927ysnff
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  • Book Info
    Natural Gas and Israel's Energy Future
    Book Description:

    This book discusses the opportunities and risks the government of Israel faces in shifting to a greater reliance on domestic and imported natural gas. By applying newly developed methods for strategic planning and decisionmaking under deep uncertainty, the analysis seeks to help the Israeli government engage in managed change by choosing robust strategies that minimize potential consequences of relying more heavily on natural gas.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-4942-1
    Subjects: Physics, Business

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-vi)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. vii-x)
  4. Figures
    (pp. xi-xii)
  5. Tables
    (pp. xiii-xiv)
  6. Summary
    (pp. xv-xxii)
  7. Acknowledgments
    (pp. xxiii-xxiv)
  8. Abbreviations
    (pp. xxv-xxvi)
  9. CHAPTER ONE Introduction
    (pp. 1-6)

    Israel’s electric-power system is running out of capacity to meet the demands of its growing economy. In recent years, capacity utilization has sometimes neared the limits of the system. For example, on January 30, 2008, peak demand hit 10,200 megawatts (MW) out of the Israel Electric Corporation’s (IEC’s) installed generating capacity of 11,323 MW. Because Israel’s grid is not connected to those of its neighbors—the more usual state of affairs elsewhere in the world—Israel is an electric-power island, depending solely on itself for all of its electricity. This means that even a small decrease in the reserve buffer...

  10. CHAPTER TWO The Supply of Natural Gas and Other Options for Generating Electricity
    (pp. 7-20)

    In this chapter, we provide a lay reader’s guide to the issues of electricity generation and natural-gas supply and utilization in Israel. The goal is to enable better understanding of the utilization and infrastructure strategy analyses in Chapters Three and Four, respectively. We start by laying out the overall energy-supply picture in Israel, before delving briefly into more detail about the specific elements of that supply. Because the demand side of the equation plays a large role in dealing with supply-side strategies, we also briefly discuss issues surrounding Israeli demand for electricity.

    As noted in Chapter One, Israel has discovered...

  11. CHAPTER THREE How Large a Role Should Natural Gas Play in Israel’s Energy Mix?
    (pp. 21-44)

    In Chapter Two, we described the options that Israel has for obtaining natural gas: domestic sources of supply, imports by pipeline from Egypt, imports by pipeline from other countries, and LNG. We also discussed other means for generating electric power, including adding more coal-fired base-load capacity, continuing the use of residual fuel oil and diesel, and installing solar-thermal power. Finally, on the demand side, we discussed making Israel more energy-efficient while improving utilization of existing capacity.

    In this chapter, we evaluate these policy options, and the risks associated with each, against a series of criteria of key importance to Israel,...

  12. CHAPTER FOUR What Natural-Gas Supply-Infrastructure Strategy Is Robust?
    (pp. 45-56)

    As the analysis in Chapter Three made clear, the modified form of MoreNGRC emerged as an attractive candidate strategy for crafting a robust approach for natural gas in Israel. It is among those that tend to lead to high levels of natural-gas demand in Israel’s primary fuel mix. The principal objection to greater use of natural gas is that its supply could be less reliable than either coal or petroleum. Thus, a key question for Israeli policymakers is the level of natural-gas supply they can plan on without raising exposure to unacceptable risks in the supply of this fuel. To...

  13. CHAPTER FIVE Implications from the Analyses
    (pp. 57-66)

    The Israeli government is facing far-reaching, expensive decisions on ensuring that Israel has secure, adequate, cost-competitive supplies of electricity for the next two decades. These decisions entail complex trade-offs concerning the physical security of the system, reliability of supply, the additional generating capacity needed to satisfy likely increases in demand, land use, restricting GHG emissions, and cost.

    Decisions made in the face of many, often-competing objectives involve trade-offs. In addition, deciding on the size, type, and fuels to be used in a generating plant involves assumptions about future developments in fuel prices, electric-power demand, political relations with potential supplier countries,...

  14. Bibliography
    (pp. 67-69)