The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications
The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications
Richard Silberglitt
Philip S. Antón
David R. Howell
Anny Wong
Natalie Gassman
Brian A. Jackson
Eric Landree
Shari Lawrence Pfleeger
Elaine M. Newton
Felicia Wu
Copyright Date: 2006
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 314
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7249/tr303nic
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Book Info
The Global Technology Revolution 2020, In-Depth Analyses: Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications
Book Description:

In 2020, areas of particular importance for technology trends will include biotechnology, nanotechnology, materials technology, and information technology. This report, the companion document to The Global Technology Revolution 2020, Executive Summary (Silberglitt et al., MG-475-NIC, 2006), assesses in detail a sample of 29 countries with respect to their ability to acquire and implement 16 key technology applications.

eISBN: 978-0-8330-4114-2
Subjects: Technology
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  1. Front Matter
    Front Matter (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    Preface (pp. iii-iv)
  3. Foreword
    Foreword (pp. v-vi)
    Dr. Lawrence K. Gershwin

    The National Intelligence Council (NIC) sponsored this study by The RAND Corporation to inform the NIC’s 2020 project² and help provide US policymakers with a view of how world developments could evolve, identifying opportunities and potentially negative developments that might warrant policy action. From June 2004 through August 2005, RAND undertook the challenging task of identifying technologies and applications that have the potential for significant and dominant global impacts by 2020.

    As RAND found in its prior study for the NIC,The Global Technology Revolution(2001), technology will continue to accelerate and integrate developments from multiple scientific disciplines in a...

  4. Table of Contents
    Table of Contents (pp. vii-xii)
  5. Figures
    Figures (pp. xiii-xiv)
  6. Tables
    Tables (pp. xv-xvi)
  7. Summary
    Summary (pp. xvii-xxviii)
  8. Acknowledgments
    Acknowledgments (pp. xxix-xxx)
  9. Glossary
    Glossary (pp. xxxi-xxxii)
  10. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
    CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION (pp. 1-8)

    We live in an era of increasing use of diverse technologies in all aspects of life, from ingestible radio transmitters and fluorescent quantum dots for medical diagnosis and treatment,11to multifunctional cell phones that take digital photographs and receive and transmit electronic mail. In a previous RAND Corporation study,The Global Technology Revolution: Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their Synergies with Information Technology by 2015(hereafter referred to as GTR2015),12we investigated the pace and impacts of technology development, projected to 2015, and concluded that the world is undergoing a global technology revolution that is integrating developments in biotechnology, nanotechnology, materials technology,...

  11. CHAPTER 2 TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS AND THEIR EFFECTS
    CHAPTER 2 TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS AND THEIR EFFECTS (pp. 9-38)

    Technology applications affect society through the functions that they accomplish (e.g., health, food, shelter, climate control, transportation, communication, computation). The accelerating pace of technology development is important because it has brought new functions to large numbers of people worldwide (e.g., communication and information searching via the Internet), has improved the speed and accuracy of existing functions (e.g., lab-on-a-chip bioassays, functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) for medical diagnostics), and is producing a variety of multifunctional applications (e.g., wearable computers). In this chapter, we will describe applications of technology that may become feasible by 2020, explore the functions that these applications provide,...

  12. CHAPTER 3 INTERNATIONAL VARIATION IN TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION
    CHAPTER 3 INTERNATIONAL VARIATION IN TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION (pp. 39-134)

    The net assessment in Chapter Two took us a step further in understanding sectors that might benefit from use of technology applications that might be technically feasible and ready for use in the year 2020. In this chapter, we will take our analysis a step further to examine what might determine implementation of these TAs, by different countries and across a number of problems and issues. Nations have different priorities. The resources they can command to implement TAs also differ. This chapter has five major sections. The first begins with a reporting of regional variation of technology application and implementation...

  13. CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSIONS
    CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSIONS (pp. 135-138)

    In previous chapters, we identified and described integrated technology trends to 2020 in bio/nano/materials/information technology. We then assessed technology applications likely to result from these trends and identified several that appear poised to influence multiple sectors of society. In addition to assessing the technical and implementation feasibility of these TAs, we examined their potential regional and international ramifications. In this chapter, we present conclusions based on our technology foresights and the analysis of capacity to acquire and implement TAs of the 29 representative countries selected for our analysis.

    Based on our technical foresights (e.g., see Appendices A through E and...

  14. APPENDIX A: BIOTECHNOLOGY, BIONANOTECHNOLOGY, AND BIOMEDICAL SCIENCE TRENDS TO 2020
    APPENDIX A: BIOTECHNOLOGY, BIONANOTECHNOLOGY, AND BIOMEDICAL SCIENCE TRENDS TO 2020 (pp. 139-154)
    Brian A. Jackson and Felicia Wu
  15. APPENDIX B: NANOTECHNOLOGY TRENDS TO 2020
    APPENDIX B: NANOTECHNOLOGY TRENDS TO 2020 (pp. 155-168)
    Eric Landree
  16. APPENDIX C: MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING TRENDS TO 2020
    APPENDIX C: MATERIALS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING TRENDS TO 2020 (pp. 169-178)
    David R. Howell and Richard Silberglitt
  17. APPENDIX D: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TRENDS TO 2020
    APPENDIX D: INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TRENDS TO 2020 (pp. 179-190)
    Elaine M. Newton and Shari Lawrence Pfleeger
  18. APPENDIX E: CREATING NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING EXISTING THERAPEUTICS: NANO-ENABLED DRUG DELIVERY SYSTEMS TRENDS TOWARD 2020
    APPENDIX E: CREATING NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING EXISTING THERAPEUTICS: NANO-ENABLED DRUG DELIVERY SYSTEMS TRENDS TOWARD 2020 (pp. 191-208)
    Natalie Rose Gassman
  19. APPENDIX F: TECHNOLOGY AND TERRORISM
    APPENDIX F: TECHNOLOGY AND TERRORISM (pp. 209-214)
    Brian A. Jackson
  20. APPENDIX G: SECTORAL IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS
    APPENDIX G: SECTORAL IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS (pp. 215-224)
  21. APPENDIX H: INDEX OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAPACITY
    APPENDIX H: INDEX OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAPACITY (pp. 225-228)
  22. APPENDIX I: 2005 FREEDOM RATING FOR 29 SELECTED COUNTRIES
    APPENDIX I: 2005 FREEDOM RATING FOR 29 SELECTED COUNTRIES (pp. 229-230)
  23. APPENDIX J: HDI RANK, SCORES, AND DEVELOPMENT INDICATOR STATISTICS FOR 29 SELECTED COUNTRIES
    APPENDIX J: HDI RANK, SCORES, AND DEVELOPMENT INDICATOR STATISTICS FOR 29 SELECTED COUNTRIES (pp. 231-234)
  24. APPENDIX K: KNOWLEDGE ASSESSMENT (UNWEIGHTED) FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, RANKED BY INNOVATION SCORES
    APPENDIX K: KNOWLEDGE ASSESSMENT (UNWEIGHTED) FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, RANKED BY INNOVATION SCORES (pp. 235-238)
  25. References
    References (pp. 239-281)
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