• • Front Matter
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• • Table of Contents
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• • FOREWORD
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• • PREFACE
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• • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
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• • The Alpha and the Omega of Risk: The Significance of Mortality
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• • Into the Unknown: Modeling Uncertainty
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• • The Shapes of Things to Come: Probabilities and Parameters
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• • The Value of Experience: Independence and Estimation
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• • It’s All in Your Head: Bayesian Decision Making
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• • Aloofness and Quasi-Aloofness: Defining Insurance Risks
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• • Trustworthy Transfer; Probable Pooling: Financing Insurance Risks
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• • God-Awful Guessing and Bad Behavior: Solvency and Underwriting
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• • The Good, the Bad, …: The Role of Risk Classification
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• • … And the Lawyerly: Liability and Government Compensation
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• • What Is Randomness?: Knowable and Unknowable Complexity
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• • Patterns, Real and Imagined: Observation and Theory
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• • False Choices and Black Boxes: The Costs of Limited Data
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• • Nullifying the Dull Hypothesis: Conventional Versus Personalized Science
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• • Games and the Mind: Modeling Human Behavior
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• • NOTES
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• • AUTHOR’S EDITORIALS AND OTHER WRITINGS
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• • BIBLIOGRAPHY
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• • INDEX
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