While popular accounts of warfare, particularly of
nontraditional conflicts such as guerrilla wars and insurgencies,
favor the roles of leaders or ideology, social-scientific analyses
of these wars focus on aggregate categories such as ethnic groups,
religious affiliations, socioeconomic classes, or civilizations.
Challenging these constructions, Abdulkader H. Sinno closely
examines the fortunes of the various factions in Afghanistan,
including the mujahideen and the Taliban, that have been fighting
each other and foreign armies since the 1979 Soviet invasion.
Focusing on the organization of the combatants, Sinno offers a
new understanding of the course and outcome of such conflicts.
Employing a wide range of sources, including his own fieldwork in
Afghanistan and statistical data on conflicts across the region,
Sinno contends that in Afghanistan, the groups that have
outperformed and outlasted their opponents have done so because of
their successful organization. Each organization's ability to
mobilize effectively, execute strategy, coordinate efforts, manage
disunity, and process information depends on how well its structure
matches its ability to keep its rivals at bay. Centralized
organizations, Sinno finds, are generally more effective than
noncentralized ones, but noncentralized ones are more resilient
absent a safe haven.
Sinno's organizational theory explains otherwise puzzling
behavior found in group conflicts: the longevity of unpopular
regimes, the demise of popular movements, and efforts of those who
share a common cause to undermine their ideological or ethnic kin.
The author argues that the organizational theory applies not only
to Afghanistan-where he doubts the effectiveness of American
state-building efforts-but also to other ethnic, revolutionary,
independence, and secessionist conflicts in North Africa, the
Middle East, and beyond.
Subjects: Political Science
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