Europe 2030

Europe 2030

Copyright Date: 2010
Pages: 155
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  • Book Info
    Europe 2030
    Book Description:

    The European Union is the most successful supranational organization in history. It has reconciled former enemies, established a single market and a common currency, and reintegrated Central and Eastern Europe into the West. Yet the EU remains unsatisfying to its members and its partners. An economic giant but a political pygmy, it seems hamstrung by bureaucracy and a lack of connection to European publics.

    InEurope 2030, distinguished authors predict what the European Union will look like twenty years from new. A range of views is presented, foreseeing everything from slower growth and diminished power to actions that would make the EU a more vigorous, influential world play.

    Contributors include Oksana Antonenko (International Institute for Strategic Studies), José Manuel Durão Barroso (European Commission), José Cutileiro (former secretary general, Western European Union), Joschka Fischer (former minister of foreign affairs, Germany), Charles Grant (Center for European Reform), Andrew Hilton (Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation), Jonathan Laurence (German Marshall Fund, Boston College and Brookings Institution), Rui Chancerelle de Machete (consititutional and administrative attorney), Hubert Védrine (former minister of foreign affairs, France), and Joseph H.H. Weiler (New York University).

    eISBN: 978-0-8157-0461-4
    Subjects: Political Science, History

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-iv)
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  3. Foreword
    (pp. vii-viii)
    Rui Chancerelle de Machete

    HOW WILL THE European Union look twenty years from now?

    It is practically impossible to give an answer. The purpose of this book is more reasonable: to find out from its authors which are the main issues at stake in 2030 Europe. The future cannot be described, however, since the dominant factors necessarily will include normative perceptions. That is why we have asked for essays and not forecasts.

    For the smaller European countries, even more so than the larger member states, the shape that Europe will take over the next couple of decades and how it will arrive there are...

  4. Preface
    (pp. ix-xii)
    José Manuel Durão Barroso
  5. 1 Europe 2030: Global Power or Hamster on a Wheel?
    (pp. 1-10)

    TWENTY YEARS CAN be a very long time in politics, but it is a very short period in terms of historical change. The European Union (EU), a political entity entirely without historical precedent, embodies that paradox of stasis and change. Indeed, one might call the EU an institutionalized contradiction: it functions, even though, in theory, it should not.

    For states on the European continent, the EU embodies a new political system, the second since the international system that prevailed since the seventeenth-century’s Peace of Westphalia destroyed itself in the twentieth century’s two world wars. Then, during the five decades of...

  6. 2 The Limits of the European Union in 2030: A Best-Case Scenario
    (pp. 11-22)

    IN 2030 the European Union remained an open-ended venture. On successive occasions between the end of the twentieth century and the middle of the second decade of the twenty-first, a few concerned politicians, mostly in France and Germany, had raised the issue of what they called the borders of Europe, which they thought should be unmistakably defined and set in stone to preserve the cultural identity of the Union and keep the barbarians at the gate. But no serious public debate on the matter ever took place in any member state, and each attempt eventually petered out, leaving the Union...

  7. 3 The Accidental Constitution
    (pp. 23-44)

    THE AFTERMATH OF A bitter divorce may not seem to be the most auspicious time for reflecting on the future of matrimony. In the light of the dramatic failure of the European Constitution and the exorcism from its successor, the Treaty of Lisbon, of any “constitutional” vocabulary or iconography, this may appear to be an inauspicious time to try to imagine the constitutional future of Europe twenty years from now. It would seem that neither the EU’s institutions and member states nor “The People(s)” are in a constitutional mood. What impact will these events have on the prospects for a...

  8. 4 The European Economic Model in 2030
    (pp. 45-62)

    EVEN BEFORE THE future of capitalism itself was put in question by the crisis that broke with the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, a real battle of ideas was taking place over the concept of “Europe”—a battle that colors everything that the European nation-states do and one that the United States doesn’t begin to understand.

    The reason that many Americans do not understand it is that this battle does not accord with what most U.S. euro-watchers fondly believe to be their own history. Of course, if one looks back to the U.S. founding fathers, one sees that...

  9. 5 Europe as a Global Actor in 2030
    (pp. 63-86)

    IN 2030 the European Union covers most of the European continent: it stretches from Iceland in the northwest to Ukraine in the east to Turkey in the southeast. It is one of the world’s principal economic powers, and the euro matches the dollar and the yuan as a reserve currency. Politically, the EU is the dominant power in regions that are close to it, but further afield it is just one of a number of powers that matter. In that, it resembles China.

    The EU can deploy up to 250,000 soldiers, given a few months’ notice; they are usually sent...

  10. 6 Europe and the United States in 2030
    (pp. 87-98)

    WHAT KIND OF relations will the United States and Europe have in some twenty years? To be able to answer this question we must try to imagine how each of these two entities will evolve, what kind of relations they will have with the “rest of the world,” and what the nature of their relationship will be under various future scenarios.

    Numerous American and some European authors have taken to discussing the various possible reasons for the decline of the United States. Among the most cited: deindustrialization due to globalization and outsourcing and competition from emerging economies, which explain the...

  11. 7 Russia in 2030: A More Attractive Partner for the EU?
    (pp. 99-120)

    IN THE PAST CENTURY Russian-Western relations have gone through many phases—from World War II alliances to cold war ideological confrontation, from Gorbachev-era euphoria to Putin-era mutual disappointment, from economic partnership to geopolitical rivalry—yet the fundamental tension in the relationship has remained unchanged throughout its tumultuous history.

    On one hand, Russia and the West¹ share many things: scientific achievements, geographic borders, and a rich cultural heritage. With the fall of communism and the advance of globalization, the reality of their interdependence has become all the more evident. Indeed, over the past century Russia and Europe have influenced each other...

  12. 8 European Islam in the Year 1451
    (pp. 121-144)

    THE ADVENT OF the twenty-first century was heralded with dark predictions from Ivy League historians, investigative journalists, and Internet populists that, in Europe, the new century would be Islamic.¹ Some argued simply that demography is destiny—that the combination of Muslims’ runaway birthrates and European natives’ “suicidal” fertility rates would lead to a Western set of Islamic republics by mid-century.² Others blamed those hapless Europeans who, by leaving Europe, avoided the good fight: white flight, they argued, had already begun to empty the continent of those who might defend its cultural roots. Moreover, politically correct governments had done little to...

  13. Contributors
    (pp. 145-146)
  14. Index
    (pp. 147-155)
  15. Back Matter
    (pp. 156)