Turkey's Nuclear Future

Turkey's Nuclear Future

GEORGE PERKOVICH
SINAN ÜLGEN
Copyright Date: 2015
Pages: 248
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7864/j.ctt13wztf1
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  • Book Info
    Turkey's Nuclear Future
    Book Description:

    Turkey, with a robust modern economy and growing energy needs, is pursuing a switch to nuclear power. But that shift is occurring in an environment fraught with security challenges: Turkey borders Iraq, Syria, and Iran-all states with nuclear or WMD ambitions or capabilities. As a NATO member, Turkey also hosts U.S. nuclear bombs on its territory, although some question the durability of this relationship. This dynamic has naturally led to speculation that Turkish leaders might someday consider moving beyond a civilian course to develop nuclear weapons. Yet there has been remarkably little informed analysis and debate on Turkey's nuclear future, either within the country or in broader international society. This volume explores the current status and trajectory of Turkey's nuclear program, adding historical perspective, analytical rigor, and strategic insight.

    eISBN: 978-0-87003-417-6
    Subjects: Political Science

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-iv)
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  3. FOREWORD
    (pp. vii-x)
    William J. Burns

    The international landscape is undergoing significant change—new global and regional powers are rising, hundreds of millions of people around the world are climbing into the middle class, hyper-empowered individuals with the capacity to do great good and huge harm are multiplying, and more information is flowing more rapidly than ever before. Turkey’s emergence over the past decade as a more independent and assertive foreign policy actor is indicative of this change and both the challenges and opportunities it presents to regional stability and international security.

    This volume focuses on one of the most consequential aspects of Turkey’s transformation—its...

  4. INTRODUCTION WHY TURKEY?
    (pp. 1-8)
    SINAN ÜLGEN

    In regions where nuclear weapons are deployed and pressing security dilemmas exist, states’ nuclear policies often have, or could have, multiple dimensions. States in such circumstances may have civilian nuclear programs to provide energy or isotopes for medical and agricultural purposes. These civilian programs may be active and ambitious, or fledgling and focused on research and development. States in challenging security environments may also pursue military nuclear policies to deter potential adversaries. These policies may focus on alliance relationships whereby some states produce and control nuclear weapons, extending deterrence on behalf of their allies, which in turn may share responsibility...

  5. CHAPTER 1 TURKEY AND NUCLEAR ENERGY
    (pp. 9-38)
    GÜRKAN KUMBAROĞLU

    Turkey’s quest for nuclear energy can be traced back almost as far as its membership in the Atoms for Peace program in 1955. It was in the following year that Turkey’s Atomic Energy Commission was founded under the auspices of the prime ministry. A 1 megawatt (MW) research reactor began operation in 1962. The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources was established a year later, and the Electric Works Study Administration, a division within the ministry, began feasibility studies for the construction of a nuclear power plant: a 300–400 MWe (megawatts of electrical output) pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR)...

  6. CHAPTER 2 REGULATING NUCLEAR POWER: The Case of Turkey
    (pp. 39-62)
    İZAK ATIYAS

    Ensuring the safety of nuclear energy is of paramount importance as Turkey embarks on adopting a nuclear energy program. The key to nuclear safety is having in place an effective regulatory framework. It is useful to think of regulatory frameworks for nuclear safety as consisting of two main components. The first entails international agreements and rules, regulations, standards, and guidelines established by international organizations active in the nuclear power area. Becoming a party to international agreements or conventions, or, in the case of the European Union (EU), adoption of EU directives, therefore stands out as an important component of the...

  7. CHAPTER 3 THE ORIGINS OF TURKEY’S NUCLEAR POLICY
    (pp. 63-86)
    DORUK ERGUN

    As a country situated at the crossroads of long-lasting power struggles, military competition, and instability, Turkey has dealt with major security issues continuously throughout its existence. While there are many facets to the security challenges that Turkey faces today, one major field, and the focus of this chapter, is the role of nuclear weapons in Turkey’s threat perception and as a means of response. The country’s security environment has changed dramatically over the years, and this has had major impacts on how Ankara views nuclear proliferation as a threat and how it views nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

    Throughout the...

  8. CHAPTER 4 TURKEY’S NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY AND NATO NUCLEAR WEAPONS
    (pp. 87-106)
    CAN KASAPOĞLU

    Turkey’s geopolitical imperatives have shifted since the collapse of the Soviet Union, from confronting a political-military giant in the north, to confronting much more diverse threats that are predominantly emanating from the Middle East.¹ In the 1990s, Ankara’s security thinking was shaped by a comprehensive threat perception linked to instability in the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East. At the very beginning of that decade, Turkey’s political-military elites had to face a strategic weapons threat apart from the NATO-Warsaw Pact balance of terror, namely, the ballistic missiles and chemical warheads of Saddam Hussein. The Turkish strategic community derived two...

  9. CHAPTER 5 TURKEY AND MISSILE TECHNOLOGY: Asymmetric Defense, Power Projection, and the Military-Industrial Complex
    (pp. 107-124)
    AARON STEIN

    Ankara has expressed a sustained interest in procuring offensive and defensive missile systems that are intended to work together to augment Turkey’s capabilities to target asymmetric threats and to bolster the country’s defense against a ballistic missile attack. Turkey is pursuing ballistic and cruise missiles and is eager to complement these capabilities with a robust intelligence-gathering capability that relies on space-based and unmanned systems. These systems are intended to work together to provide a better defense against regional missile proliferation.

    The plans are not tied to Turkey’s civilian nuclear efforts and do not appear aimed at providing Turkey with a...

  10. CHAPTER 6 TURKEY, THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY, AND THE NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP
    (pp. 125-154)
    MARK HIBBS

    The Turkish Republic is a member of two arrangements that largely define its foreign policies in the nuclear energy sphere: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). When Turkey joined both the NPT and the NSG it did so because it concluded that membership was consistent with the country’s values, aspirations, and international commitments. At the time they were made, these decisions did not excite public debate or controversy, and Turkish leaders had little to say to explain their actions.

    Over time, Turkey’s views of both the NPT and the NSG have...

  11. CHAPTER 7 TURKEY AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS: Can This Be Real?
    (pp. 155-182)
    MUSTAFA KIBAROĞLU

    Since the dramatic revelations of Iran’s illicit nuclear activities in 2002, commentators have speculated that Turkey will follow suit and seek to acquire nuclear-weapon capabilities to balance Iran and meet the potential challenges of a proliferation cascade in the Middle East. Academics and pundits have scrutinized Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy projects with a view to “discovering the real motives” behind its past and current initiatives. What is the likelihood of Turkey “going nuclear” in the years ahead despite its outstanding performance under the nuclear nonproliferation regime?

    A number of factors are believed to have kept Turkey from seeking to...

  12. CHAPTER 8 DEBATING TURKEY’S NUCLEAR FUTURE
    (pp. 183-208)
    JESSICA VARNUM

    While this volume’s editors graciously answer the question “Why a book about nuclear issues and Turkey?,” anyone who watches the news is unlikely to seriously ask such a question. This stands in marked contrast to the immediate post–Cold War era, when only regionalists and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) experts paid regular attention to Turkey, and most in Western policy circles took Ankara’s compliance with Western preferences—on nuclear and non-nuclear issues alike—as an article of faith. As recently as 2009, one reviewer of this author’s Turkey case study for an edited volume on proliferation forecasting suggested the...

  13. CONCLUSION
    (pp. 209-216)
    GEORGE PERKOVICH

    Turkey is a rising economic, political, and strategic actor in the international system. Notwithstanding recent internal turmoil and unfolding crises in states next to it, Turkey will continue to attract international interest centered on its own political economy and on its capacity to affect dynamics in the greater Middle East, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Turkey also will remain an important actor in the international nuclear order. Its size and economic growth make it a potentially significant market for nuclear energy technology, whether supplied by international partners or developed indigenously. And Turkey’s location in a tumultuous region naturally leads to...

  14. INDEX
    (pp. 217-240)
  15. CONTRIBUTORS
    (pp. 241-246)
  16. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
    (pp. 247-250)
  17. Back Matter
    (pp. 251-251)