Income and Employment in the Southeast

Income and Employment in the Southeast

L. Randolph McGee
Copyright Date: 1967
Pages: 152
  • Cite this Item
  • Book Info
    Income and Employment in the Southeast
    Book Description:

    Although there has been a growing interest in regional economic development, the important aspect of regional business fluctuations has not received corresponding attention. This study focuses upon the relative cyclical behavior of income and employment in the Southeastern United States following the Second World War and seeks to determine in particular what effect the industrial composition of the region has had upon income and employment.

    Using the procedures of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Mr. McGee identifies four complete cycles of general business activity during the postwar period. Within this frame of reference he analyzes the fluctuations of nineteen selected income and employment series, comparing these with respect to their turning points, durations, and amplitudes. Where possible aggregate series were broken down and analyzed further to isolate characteristics of the behavior of income and employment in the Southeast.

    Though the limitations of available data prevent definitive conclusions, business cycles apparently affect the Southeast more strongly than they do the nation as a whole. In the area of non-agricultural employment, however, differentials though slight are sufficient to render questionable the description of the region as one of slow economic growth. Moreover, Mr. McGee finds, the industrial mix of the Southeast is more favorable than that of the United States as a whole.

    eISBN: 978-0-8131-6394-9
    Subjects: Business, History

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-iv)
    (pp. v-vi)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. vii-viii)
    (pp. 1-14)

    THE STUDYof regional business fluctuations has not received the consideration it deserves, particularly in view of the growing interest in regional economic development. A few writers have demonstrated clearly that cyclical fluctuations differ between regions within the United States.¹ Very little, however, has been done with cycles in the South. This study analyzes the behavior of four cycles of income and employment in the Southeastern United States since World War II and compares this behavior with that of income and employment in the nation as a whole.² In addition to comparing the Southeast with the United States, it makes...

  5. 2 INCOME
    (pp. 15-27)

    IDEALLY, income should be analyzed by first examining the relative cyclical behavior of Southeastern aggregate income and then its various components. The lack of suitable data for the Southeastern states, however, precludes a good breakdown of income by source.¹ Therefore, this chapter is limited to a comparison of quantitative measures of cyclical fluctuations for the United States and the Southeast based on four income series. Two of these series, personal income and per capita personal income, are aggregates; and, the other two, cash receipts from farm marketings and average weekly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, are not, strictly speaking,...

    (pp. 28-35)

    AGRICULTURALemployment and nonagricultural employment, for the Southeast and the nation as a whole, could be summed to derive a total employment series but the results would be somewhat dubious, for these figures are estimated by two different agencies using different techniques. The two series are therefore examined individually.

    Incompleteness of data limits the analysis of agricultural employment to only a twelve-year period. During the period 1950-1961 agricultural employment declined rapidly relative to total employment. And furthermore, the cyclical behavior of agricultural employment did not conform to other employ ment series during the postwar period. Consequently, there would be very...

    (pp. 36-65)

    THE COMMODITY-PRODUCINGsector of nonagricultural employment includes employment in mining, contract construction, and manufacturing industries.¹ Manufacturing employment is further disaggregated into durableand nondurable-goods manufacturing, and a related series, average weekly hours of production workers in manufacturing, is examined. The breakdown of manufacturing employment is important because this type of employment represents more than three-fourths of total commodity-producing employment and it is known that durable goods are more sensitive to cyclical swings than nondurable goods.

    For thenation as a whole, total employment in the commodity-producing sector during the postwar years has increased slowly in absolute numbers and has actually declined...

    (pp. 66-93)

    THE TOTALservices sector of nonagricultural industries includes transportation and public utilities, wholesale and retail trade, finance (including insurance and real estate), services and miscellaneous, and government (federal, state, and local). Employment in the service industries is larger than employment in commodity-producing industries; furthermore, employment in these industries has been growing faster in importance, both relatively and absolutely,¹ than employment in the commodity-producing industries.

    In 1945, employment in the nationwide services industries represented 56.7 percent of total nonagricultural employment; by 1961 the proportion had increased to 63.6 percent. In absolute numbers the increase was from 22.9 million in 1945 to...

    (pp. 94-107)

    INCOME ANDemployment for the Southeast have been compared with their national counterparts in an effort to isolate any peculiar cyclical characteristics of the Southeast region. These comparisons were made without making allowance for the different industrial compositions of the areas. Indeed, interareal differences of industry-mix were emphasized in drawing conclusions concerning the differential cyclical behavior of the Southeast. And, to be sure, interareal differences in cyclical behavior are more meaningful when determined from comparison of actual rather than hypothetical data. But the preceding analyses leave an interesting question unanswered: What would be the relative cyclical behavior of Southeastern income...

    (pp. 108-118)

    THE PRIMARYobjective of this study has been to analyze and compare selected corresponding income and employment series in the Southeast and in the United States as a whole in an effort to isolate the relative cyclical behavior of the Southeastern region of the United States. Comparisons were made of turning points, durations, and cycle amplitudes. In addition to comparing the cyclical behavior of a particular series in the Southeast with the corresponding series in the United States as a whole, disaggregated series for the Southeast were compared with their parent series and with other appropriate component series (Southeastern and...

    (pp. 119-123)
    (pp. 124-140)
  13. INDEX
    (pp. 141-143)