Forecast for Japan: Security in the 1970's

Forecast for Japan: Security in the 1970's

EDITED BY James William Morley
Donald C. Hellmann
Frank C. Langdon
James William Morley
Nathaniel B. Thayer
Martin E. Weinstein
Kenneth T. Young
Copyright Date: 1972
Pages: 254
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt13x0t3q
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  • Book Info
    Forecast for Japan: Security in the 1970's
    Book Description:

    If, as seems likely, Japan's 1975 GNP more than doubles the rest of Asia's, will it seek to build armed forces to match? For a reliable forecast, six policy specialists consider areas bearing on the path Japan takes. Drawing from the contributors' projections, James Motley concludes with a primary forecast of the security policy Japan is likely to follow in the early 1970's.

    Originally published in 1972.

    ThePrinceton Legacy Libraryuses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These paperback editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

    eISBN: 978-1-4008-7039-4
    Subjects: Technology, Political Science

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. [i]-[iv])
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. [v]-2)
  3. Introduction
    (pp. 3-8)
    J.W.M.

    For more than twenty years little has been said publicly about Japan’s security policy. Japan was too poor and too timid to threaten anyone else and too well protected by the United States to feel itself threatened.

    But Japan is no longer poor. It is now producing the third largest gross national product in the world. While it will not soon match the Soviet Union or the United States, it is already producing as much as all the rest of Asia combined and may well double its output again within the next five years Nor is Japan any longer timid....

  4. CHAPATER I Economism and Balanced Defense
    (pp. 9-34)
    JAMES WILLIAM MORLEY

    With the rise of Japan to the position of third-ranking economy in the world and the germination of a new nationalism in the land, there is a growing expectation in many quarters that Japan will soon want to “rearm” rather sharply and to reach out militarily for the defense of its expanding interests around the world, particularly in Asia.

    There are those on the Right who look forward to such a course, hoping that Japan will contribute a new force for the containment of communism or at least “share” some of the “burdens” that the United States wishes to lay...

  5. CHAPATER II Strategic Thought and the U.S.-Japan Alliance
    (pp. 35-84)
    MARTIN E. WEINSTEIN

    Throughout the postwar period Japan’s defense policy of minimal rearmament and American alignment has been widely misunderstood. One charge is that it represents no policy at all, but simply subservience to American demands. The other is that, however pacific Japan may appear, it cannot be trusted; as soon as it can afford to do so, Japan will surely go it alone. The truth is that Japan’s defense policy is what it claims to be: strictly defensive. Moreover, it is the result of clearly-thought-out strategic conceptions, deeply held and consistently followed by its conservative leadership for more than twenty years.

    The...

  6. CHAPTER III The Stability of Conservative Party Leadership
    (pp. 85-110)
    NATHANIEL B. THAYER

    Security policy like other major policy in Japan is the product of interaction among the business federations, the bureaucracy, and the conservative politicians, with the businessmen usually insisting on what is profitable, the bureaucracy on what is rational and economical, and the politicians on what enhances themselves and the nation.

    And what of the wishes of the people? Japan is after all a parliamentary democracy. The constitution gives the people ultimate authority: they elect the legislators, the legislators elect the prime minister, and the prime minister appoints the cabinet. But Japanese voting behavior is so structured and the election law...

  7. CHAPTER IV The Attitudes of the Business Community
    (pp. 111-134)
    FRANK C. LANGDON

    Throughout the postwar period Japanese business leaders and organizations have participated actively in making and implementing Japanese security policy. As a group they have been among the strongest supporters of the government’s fundamental policies of “economism” and “balanced defense,” traditionally insisting that the country’s top priority go to economic growth and that its security be sought not so much in the build-up of its own forces as in the maintenance of the American guarantee.

    Within the last few years, however, new currents have begun to flow. Japan’s emergence as the world’s third largest economy, the stirring of nationalistic pride, the...

  8. CHAPTER V The Confrontation with Realpolitik
    (pp. 135-168)
    DONALD C. HELLMANN

    To an extraordinary extent during the past two decades, Japan’s international role has been reactive, defined almost entirely by the outside environment¹. Moreover, continuity within the domestic political system should assure perpetuation of this passivity in the immediate future. It is to the external environment, then, that one should look for stimuli. And here for the 1970’s one finds stimuli of the most provocative kind: confrontation for the first time in the postwar era with the realities of world politics.

    One key to the derivative nature of Japan’s past international actions lies in a decision-making process that has prevented bold...

  9. CHAPTER VI The Involvement in Southeast Asia
    (pp. 169-203)
    KENNETH T. YOUNG

    The years 1969-1970 were a major watershed in contemporary Asian history. The old era of Western supremacy was ended. European colonial power had already disappeared and now the American presence began slowly to recede. A new era of Asian primacy in Asia had begun—an era in which Japan is emerging asthepreeminent power in the region. How Japan will use that power, therefore, becomes an increasingly critical question. As a Japanese official is reported to have said recently: “We are involved in a serious debate about what role we should play, politically and militarily. Economically we follow a...

  10. CHAPTER VII A Forecast with Recommendations
    (pp. 204-238)
    JAMES WILLIAM MORLEY

    The major influences that will shape Japanese security policy over the next few years are now clear: a shifting international environment, increasingly confronting Japan withrealpolitik; a rising spirit of new nationalism at home, calling restlessly for imaginative initiatives; and a continuing high rate of economic growth, which makes real alternative choices possible. How will Japan respond? The answer will depend in large part on the perceptions of Japan’s conservative leaders, for it is they who will be making the decisions at least through the middle of the decade.

    Deeply imbued with the doctrines of “economism” and “balanced defense,” they...

  11. CONTRIBUTORS
    (pp. 239-240)
  12. Index
    (pp. 241-249)