Juggernaut

Juggernaut: How Emerging Powers Are Reshaping Globalization

URI DADUSH
WILLIAM SHAW
Copyright Date: 2011
Pages: 257
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt6wpj47
  • Cite this Item
  • Book Info
    Juggernaut
    Book Description:

    Against the long sweep of economic history, the current moment is special. Living standards advanced so rapidly and across so many countries over the last decade that it is difficult to think of parallels -even the deepest recession since the Great Depression did not halt progress.

    InJuggernaut, Uri Dadush and William Shaw explore the rise of developing countries and how they will reshape the economic landscape. Dadush and Shaw project that the global economy will more than triple over the next forty years and the advance of a large group of developing countries -home to most of the world's population but seen as supplicants rather than trendsetters less than a generation ago -will drive this improvement. The authors systematically examine the effects of this seismic shift on the main avenues of globalization -trade, finance, migration, and the global commons -and identify the policy options available to leaders in managing the transformation.

    In the years to come, the rise of emerging economies will likely enhance prosperity but also create great tensions that could slow the process or even stop it in its tracks. Juggernaut calls for leadership by the largest countries in managing these tensions, and underscores the need to cultivate a "global conscience."

    eISBN: 978-0-87003-343-8
    Subjects: Sociology, Political Science, Business

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-iv)
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  3. FOREWORD
    (pp. vii-viii)
    Jessica Tuchman Mathews

    The rapid rise of what we used to call the developing world is a defining trend of our time. In this book, Uri Dadush and William Shaw provide the first systematic examination of the long-term implications of this tectonic shift for the international economy and global governance, covering both domestic and international economic policies.

    Two centuries of history show that there is nothing automatic about economic development and catch-up. In recent years, however, an extraordinary confluence of factors has allowed an unprecedented number of countries—and people—to achieve rapid income growth. These factors include access to technology, the opening...

  4. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
    (pp. ix-x)
  5. ABBREVIATIONS
    (pp. xi-xii)
  6. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION THE POOR SHALL INHERIT THE EARTH
    (pp. 1-16)

    This is not the first book to treat the subject of the rising economic powers. Indeed, even a partial bibliography of recent works would include at least four excellent treatments—some originating in the policy community, such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’sPerspectives on Global Development: Shifting Wealth(2010) and the World Bank’sGlobal Economic Prospects: Managing the Next Wave of Globalization(2007) (which we contributed to), and some appealing to a general audience such as Fareed Zakaria’sThe Post-American Worldand George Magnus’sUprising. But this is the first to systematically explore how the world economy...

  7. CHAPTER 2 HOW WE GOT HERE A SHORT HISTORY OF DEVELOPMENT
    (pp. 17-38)

    For centuries, mankind made only sporadic advances in technology, economic output, and living standards. Great civilizations rose and then faltered. No advance lasted or propagated widely. In the mid-eighteenth to mid-nineteenth centuries, however, a convergence of apt institutions, favorable geography, growing empire, and a critical mass of technological discoveries produced the Industrial Revolution in Britain, enabling sustained advances in per capita income.

    Following the Industrial Revolution, however, technology and growth again failed to spread evenly across the world. Success was limited to a few countries in Europe and sparsely inhabited colonies, which essentially imported institutions, education, and technology from the...

  8. CHAPTER 3 IN 2050 A WORLD TRANSFORMED
    (pp. 39-64)

    The world economy is undergoing a historic transformation, reflecting the rapid growth of developing countries and their integration into global markets. Contrary to some predictions, the resilience of developing countries during the Great Recession suggests that they will persist with market-oriented policies that underpin their growth and integration. And the crisis—whose epicenter was in the United States and Europe—may well accelerate their rising share of global economic activity.

    The world’s economic balance of power will shift dramatically. China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economic power, and India will join both as a global leader....

  9. CHAPTER 4 TRADE THE GREAT DEVELOPMENT ARENA
    (pp. 65-90)

    The rising economic weight of developing countries and their integration into global markets are transforming world trade. In the last 12 months China became the world’s largest exporter, manufacturer, energy consumer, and car market—on a path to becoming the dominant trading partner of most countries within a generation. And Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico will likely join it in the ranks of the 10 largest trading nations.

    By 2050 developing countries are projected to account for nearly 70 percent of world trade in goods—more than twice their share today—while the shares of Europe and the United States...

  10. CHAPTER 5 FINANCE HARNESSING THE BEAST
    (pp. 91-120)

    Developing countries are becoming more important actors in global financial markets, with momentous implications for their own development and for the global economy. International financial integration will inevitably accompany the higher incomes and increased trade and international communication as residents and firms in developing countries seek to diversify their assets and tap liquid global markets. As such, it can bring many benefits.

    It can also expose a country to extraordinary risks and greatly accentuate boom-bust cycles. The Great Recession has shown that, even in the most advanced financial systems—such as the United States and the United Kingdom, where the...

  11. CHAPTER 6 MIGRATION THE NEGLECTED PILLAR OF GLOBALIZATION
    (pp. 121-152)

    The ineffectiveness of immigration restrictions in the rich destination countries stems from competing views and interests. Opposition to immigration in the receiving countries reflects native workers fearing competing with migrants, concerns over the social impact of a growing foreign presence, and pure bigotry.¹ Yet, employer groups often support easing immigration restrictions, important sectors of destination countries’ economies depend on immigrants, and there is reluctance to impose the general limits on civil liberties that would shut out all illegals.

    The rise of developing countries, demographic trends, and other factors imply that these dilemmas are likely to sharpen in the coming years....

  12. CHAPTER 7 THE GLOBAL COMMONS A TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY TRAGEDY?
    (pp. 153-180)

    The rise of developing countries may lead to environmental catastrophe. Without a concerted international response and radical change in domestic policy, climate change over the coming decades may cause the inundation of coastal areas, the transformation of vast tracks of arable land into desert, increasing destruction by storms, the massive extinctions of species, and the further deterioration of human health.

    Averting such disasters, and making progress on other global public goods, requires policy coordination among governments. Intergovernmental coordination is also important for trade, finance, and migration—the channels of integration discussed in previous chapters—but policies can be improved through...

  13. CHAPTER 8 AFRICA WILL THE CONTINENT BREAK THROUGH?
    (pp. 181-194)

    This book is about the rapidly growing emerging giants that will rule the world economy in a few decades. The transformation of Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Russia into global powerhouses will lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and enormously improve global welfare. But these countries are not the whole story of development. Sub-Saharan Africa has been left out of the narrative.¹

    The prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa may not have the earth-shaking implications that growth in the BRICs does. No African country is expected to make it among the top 10 economies by 2050. But whether...

  14. CHAPTER 9 CONFRONTING CHANGE THE NEED FOR A GLOBAL CONSCIENCE
    (pp. 195-206)

    The preceding chapters have reviewed the challenges that lie ahead in each of the main channels of globalization—trade, finance, migration, and the global commons. The picture we have painted is necessarily fragmented and incomplete, reflecting reality on the ground. In this concluding chapter, we first try to bring together the different strands to propose some principles for how international cooperation can maximize the gains from the rise of the developing countries. We then assess how policies and international coordination in each of the channels of globalization stack up against these principles. Finally, we discuss the possible role of the...

  15. ANNEX THE MODEL UNDERPINNING THE LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS
    (pp. 207-216)
  16. INDEX
    (pp. 217-254)
  17. AUTHORS
    (pp. 255-256)
  18. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
    (pp. 257-260)
  19. Back Matter
    (pp. 261-261)