The China-India Nuclear Crossroads

The China-India Nuclear Crossroads

LORA SAALMAN EDITOR & TRANSLATOR
Copyright Date: 2012
Pages: 218
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt6wpjm0
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  • Book Info
    The China-India Nuclear Crossroads
    Book Description:

    Global power is shifting to Asia. The U.S. military is embarking on an American "pivot" to the Indo-Pacific region, and the bulk of global arms spending is directed toward Asian theaters. India and Pakistan are thought to be building up their nuclear arsenals while questions persist about China's potential to "sprint to parity." China remains by far the world's largest market for new nuclear energy production, and India aspires to be on a similar trajectory.

    Despite these trends,The China-India Nuclear Crossroadsis the first serious book by leading Chinese and Indian experts to examine the political, military, and technical factors that affect Sino-Indian nuclear relations. In this book, editor and translator Lora Saalman presents a comprehensive framework through which China and India can pursue enhanced cooperation and minimize the unintended consequences of their security dilemmas.

    eISBN: 978-0-87003-304-9
    Subjects: Political Science

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-iv)
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  3. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
    (pp. vii-viii)
  4. FOREWORD
    (pp. ix-x)
    George Perkovich

    The China-India Nuclear Crossroadsfills a paradoxical void in the literature on Chinese-Indian nuclear relations.

    Global power is shifting to Asia. The U.S. Defense Department is leading an American “pivot” to the Indo-Pacific region. Asian “theaters” attract the bulk of global arms spending. India and China have unresolved border disputes, and New Delhi’s strategists increasingly express an imperative to balance China’s “hard power.” Questions remain over China’s potential “sprint to parity,” while India and Pakistan are thought to be building up their nuclear arsenals. The only two countries in the world that are producing new fissile material for weapons are...

  5. INTRODUCTION
    (pp. 1-14)
    LORA SAALMAN

    The differing status of China and India as nuclear weapons powers has long impeded constructive interaction between the two in both the civil and military nuclear realm. China’s internationally recognized status as a nuclear-weapon state (NWS) under the nonproliferation regime sharply contrasts with that of India, which remains marginalized despite efforts to integrate it into the system. This strategic asymmetry has contributed to an atmosphere of Sino-Indian rivalry, exacerbated by ongoing territorial disputes and respective ties to third parties, namely Pakistan and the United States.

    Despite these differences, there are numerous arenas in which the two countries exhibit overlapping nuclear...

  6. CHAPTER 1 BRIDGING HISTORICAL NUCLEAR GAPS
    (pp. 15-24)
    ARUN PRAKASH and YANG YI

    The five-hundred-year cycle of Western dominance of the East, which started when Vasco da Gama set foot in India, has ended, and the power shift from the West to the East has begun. Even as Asia is about to demand its rightful place at the high table, it must be borne in mind that the region’s stability and prosperity have thus far been underwritten by the United States’ military presence. There is a possibility that as U.S. power declines, Asia may be on the threshold of an era of “balance of power” politics.

    Although China is perceived as the clear...

  7. CHAPTER 2 THINKING BEYOND NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AND STRATEGY
    (pp. 25-34)
    PAN ZHENQIANG and P. K. SINGH

    “Nuclear doctrine” refers to a theory based on principles that have been carefully worked out, in other words a codification of beliefs, or philosophical perspectives toward nuclear weapons. Moreover, the word “doctrine” can be defined at different levels. “Strategic doctrine” is defined as a fundamental set of principles that guide military forces, or elements thereof, in support of national objectives. “Tactical doctrine” applies to the concept of an established procedure for undertaking complex operations in warfare.

    On the basis of nuclear doctrine, a nuclear-weapon state develops its nuclear strategy chiefly to optimize its planning for the production and use of...

  8. CHAPTER 3 COMPARING NUCLEAR PLEDGES AND PRACTICE
    (pp. 35-46)
    C. UDAY BHASKAR and NIE HONGYI

    China and India have distinctive nuclear weapons trajectories in terms of capabilities and their relationship with the prevailing international system. China was the fifth country to become a nuclear-weapon state (NWS), and its ties with the Soviet Union provided the initial material and geopolitical support for acquiring a rudimentary nuclear weapons capability. China was a critical swing factor in the U.S.-Soviet relationship. Beijing’s subsequent estrangement with Moscow and rapprochement with Washington contributed to the evolving global strategic framework.

    India, conversely, has had a complex and unique nuclear weapons trajectory, along with a troubled relationship with the global system. India’s unique...

  9. CHAPTER 4 REVISITING NO FIRST USE AND MINIMUM DETERRENCE
    (pp. 47-64)
    LI BIN and SRIKANTH KONDAPALLI

    Although security relations between India and China have improved over the last decade, they are not yet sufficiently stable. To avoid a dangerous nuclear confrontation, it is important that the two countries learn to manage their nuclear weapons relations. For this reason, bilateral engagement on nuclear issues should be on an equal basis. However, China is a nuclear-weapon state, as defined by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), whereas India is not. This difference poses difficulties for equal engagement.

    Therefore, it is important to carefully choose the topics and format of Sino-Indian interaction to make sure that both sides feel that...

  10. CHAPTER 5 LINKING STRATEGIC STABILITY AND BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
    (pp. 65-76)
    RAJESWARI PILLAI RAJAGOPALAN and YAO YUNZHU

    One of the emerging issues in Asian security is ballistic missile defense (BMD) and its impact on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability. Despite the defensive nature of missile defense systems, China continues to view them as a threat. Because an effective defense system also has the potential to serve in an offensive role against one’s adversary, Chinese concerns are legitimate to an extent. However, if China decides to respond by vastly increasing its missile strength, it could have a spiraling effect in Asia. The Chinese reaction is likely to also have long-term security implications for India.

    Moreover, despite its often-voiced...

  11. CHAPTER 6 RECALIBRATING DETERRENCE THEORY AND PRACTICE
    (pp. 77-94)
    LI DESHUN and KALYAN KEMBURI

    China and India are neighbors and regional powers. Strategic stability within their deterrence relationship is not only a bedrock of regional security; it also plays an essential role in global security. Accordingly, the two countries should work toward mutually acceptable strategic stability relations.

    In the twenty-first century, economic interdependence has already begun to penetrate the political and military realm to become a central feature of relations between countries. This marks a significant difference with the international strategic environment surrounding the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

    As such, China and India should pursue strategic stability relations...

  12. CHAPTER 7 PARSING THE COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY
    (pp. 95-106)
    SWARAN SINGH and FAN JISHE

    The idea of a nuclear test ban maintains a special place of pride in India’s nuclear disarmament discourse. In April 1954, India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, proposed a global test ban by the nuclear weapons powers.¹ And in the same year, India advocated a cessation of nuclear testing at the United Nations General Assembly.² Nehru also commissioned a study, under the scientist D. S. Kothari, which resulted in a report entitled “Nuclear Explosions and Their Effects” that was published in 1956.

    Realizing early in its life as a country that its lone voice might not be effective, India raised...

  13. CHAPTER 8 VERIFYING FISSILE MATERIAL FUTURES
    (pp. 107-120)
    ZOU YUNHUA and M. S. PRATHIBHA

    The international community maintains that a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) would contribute to both nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation. A verifiable ban on the production of fissile material for weapons purposes is seen as one of the most effective measures to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons throughout the world and to put a cap on the accumulation of fissile materials for nuclear weapons purposes.

    In December 1993, the United Nations General Assembly adopted by consensus a resolution (48/75L) recommending the negotiation of a nondiscriminatory, multilateral, and effectively verifiable treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or...

  14. CHAPTER 9 SHORING UP THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME
    (pp. 121-136)
    RAJESH RAJAGOPALAN and LI HONG

    India’s relationship with the global nonproliferation regime has been antagonistic for much of the last four decades. But there are indications that this relationship is changing. India has sought membership in a number of technology control regimes that are linked to the nonproliferation regime, such as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the Australia Group (AG), the Wassenaar Arrangement (WA), and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).¹

    India’s attempt to seek a modus vivendi with the nonproliferation regime also has implications for India–China relations. China—as a global power, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), and...

  15. CHAPTER 10 SIZING UP THE NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP
    (pp. 137-150)
    LIU SIWEI and RAJESH RAJAGOPALAN

    Given the fact that the international nuclear nonproliferation regime is currently facing a series of challenges, China’s domestic circles—think tanks, academia, and the media—have steadily increased their discussion of nonproliferation mechanisms and related export controls. A number of these studies focus on the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and this discussion is primarily linked to Indo-U.S. civil nuclear cooperation.

    Nonetheless, a literature survey reveals that Chinese attitudes toward this issue are not uniform. The more serious papers tend to introduce two schools of opinion, that of the optimists and that of the pessimists. Optimistic scholars generally do not wish...

  16. CHAPTER 11 CONVERGING NUCLEAR ENERGY PROGRAMS
    (pp. 151-160)
    V. S. ARUNACHALAM, MEERA SUDHAKAR, S. RAJGOPAL, DIPAK SUNDARAM, GU ZHONGMAO and ZHOU ZHIWEI

    India did not have access to nuclear technology, equipment, and fuel in the global market for several decades due to its refusal to accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The recent Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement has dramatically changed this embargoed status by opening up fuel, equipment, and technology access options for India.

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has instituted a special safeguards agreement for India, and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) has given India a clean waiver for trade. These measures have been a major success, providing access to uranium and reflected in the high capacity of several Indian...

  17. CHAPTER 12 BUILDING MUTUAL CONFIDENCE
    (pp. 161-170)
    CHENG RUISHENG, ZHANG LI, MA JIALI, DIPANKAR BANERJEE, RUKMANI GUPTA, AVINASH GODBOLE and GUNJAN SINGH

    In recent years, Sino-Indian relations have witnessed a peculiar trend. While bilateral relations between the two countries have developed rapidly, with the leaders of both countries conducting frequent goodwill visits, counterproductive developments have emerged.

    Among the positive trends, Indian president Pratibha Patil’s visit to China in May 2010 and Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in December 2010 were both successful, as was the meeting between Chinese president Hu Jintao and Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa (BRICS) meeting in April 2011.

    However, there is also a negative side...

  18. CONCLUSION: COMPARING THE COMPARABLE
    (pp. 171-190)
    LORA SAALMAN

    For the past decade, China and India have been compared as rising powers due to their rapid economic growth. Yet, the story of their economic trajectories has been over-interpreted and their similarities have been frequently exaggerated. As demonstrated in this volume, what merits greater attention is China’s and India’s overlap in nuclear policy and practice. Understanding these similarities not only contributes to improving these two powers’ overall security relationship, but it also has the potential to benefit the global nuclear order as a whole.

    One of the biggest gaps in current research into China and India’s strategic relationship is the...

  19. APPENDIX
    (pp. 191-196)
  20. INDEX
    (pp. 197-214)
  21. CONTRIBUTORS
    (pp. 215-218)
  22. Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy
    (pp. 219-220)
  23. Back Matter
    (pp. 221-221)