A decade ago few Westerners had heard of Kazakhstan, the second largest of the Soviet republics and a source of vast undeveloped oil, gas, and other mineral reserves. After independence in 1991, Kazakhstan started to appear in the Western news—most notably when the United States helped the Kazakhs dismantle their nuclear weapons, and later when Chevron and Exxon/Mobil signed agreements to develop major Kazakh onshore and offshore oil reserves. The country’s vast size, its oil and gas, and its pivotal location make it of strategic importance to the United States, our Western allies, and Kazakhstan’s two powerful neighbors: China...

The distinguished Nigerian novelist Chinua Achebe’s observations about his own country can easily be applied to the current situation in Kazakhstan.

The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership. There is nothing basically wrong with the Nigerian character. There is nothing wrong with the Nigerian land or climate or water or air or anything else. The Nigerian problem is the unwillingness or inability of its leaders to rise to the responsibility, to the challenge of personal example, which are the hallmarks of true leadership.¹

In some ways, Kazakhstan was never as fortunate as Nigeria because it...

Sensitive to the often unpleasant fates of small and ethnically divided states that border on more powerful ones, President Nazarbayev initially sought ways to trade sovereignty for Kazakh domination of a territorially integral Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev’s goal was to level the playing field for Kazakhstan as much as possible so that his country would be no weaker than any of the other Soviet successor states. Nazarbayev feared that to press for a strong, Kazakh-dominated country was to risk antagonizing Russia and so to put the security of his newly independent country at risk. He did not want the ethnic Kazakhs to...

Each of the Soviet successor states has struggled to define just who exactly are “the people,” but in Kazakhstan such efforts were especially contentious. The country’s leaders proudly boast that Kazakhstan is the most multinational of all the Soviet successor states, but few who live in the country seem proud of this ethnic diversity. Instead, it appears a source of stress for many. Outside observers sense that for Kazakhstan to survive and prosper, its population must develop a civic-based patriotism to a common homeland rather than an ethnic-based loyalty to the land of the Kazakhs (or, alternatively, of the Russians)....

President Nazarbayev quickly became frightened by the prospect of not being able to predict outcomes, which is an inescapable feature of a democratic system. As former Communists, he and his advisers were aware of how public opinion could be manipulated, but as they began to experiment with political reforms they quickly learned how difficult it was to shape public will. In a democracy, incumbents can be turned out of office, and Communist-leaders-turned-presidents have sometimes fared poorly when facing their newly independent electorate. President Nazarbayev found this risk unacceptable and was unwilling to accept the legislative rebuffs inherent in a democratically...

The process of economic transformation in Kazakhstan gives striking testimony to the difficulties of moving to a market economy, even in the most resource-rich of newly independent states. Kazakhstan’s leaders inherited a situation that gave them a real reason for optimism. The country’s economy was diverse, with sufficiently well-developed manufacturing and agricultural sectors to allow a smooth transition to an independence in which public satisfaction was kept high enough to maintain political stability.

In the postcommunist world, Kazakhstan is second only to Russia in the variety and abundance of its natural resources. At independence, Kazakhstan was nearly as rich in...

Kazakhstan’s population has been surprisingly patient during a time of extraordinary political and economic stress. There have been no armed conflicts or violent demonstrations, and only limited public protests. In 1997 it seemed the country would develop a massive strike movement, but that potential challenge faded. Since then the government has managed to quell public discontent with a minimal use of public threats and virtually no overt displays of force.

At the same time, Kazakhstan’s social problems have grown faster than the government’s ability to solve them. Social differentiation is proceeding rapidly along a number of fault lines: rural versus...

Kazakhstan, just like most of the other states born of the collapsed USSR, is still something of an international novelty. Its existence is recent enough that analysts tend to concentrate much of their attention on forecasting the country’s future, trying to determine from the nation’s inventory of actual and potential assets and liabilities what kind of country Kazakhstan will be in another decade and beyond. Suggestions have naturally varied widely, depending on whether one chooses to emphasize Kazakhstan’s enormous wealth that could be shared among a small population, or whether one underscores Kazakhstan’s demographically riven society and its venal ruling...

Nearly seven years have passed since the first edition of this book went to press, and for a number of reasons it seems timely to reevaluate the basic findings of that 2002 edition. I began this task a year ago but put aside the project when the global economic crisis occurred to see how it would affect Kazakhstan.

The global crisis notwithstanding, I am much more sanguine about Kazakhstan’s future than when I finished the original volume. The country appears to be heading in the right direction economically, and it is emerging from its recent economic downturn more quickly than...