Handbook of Capture-Recapture Analysis

Handbook of Capture-Recapture Analysis

Steven C. Amstrup
Trent L. McDonald
Bryan F.J. Manly
Copyright Date: 2005
Pages: 296
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7sdj6
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  • Book Info
    Handbook of Capture-Recapture Analysis
    Book Description:

    Every day, biologists in parkas, raincoats, and rubber boots go into the field to capture and mark a variety of animal species. Back in the office, statisticians create analytical models for the field biologists' data. But many times, representatives of the two professions do not fully understand one another's roles. This book bridges this gap by helping biologists understand state-of-the-art statistical methods for analyzing capture-recapture data. In so doing, statisticians will also become more familiar with the design of field studies and with the real-life issues facing biologists.

    Reliable outcomes of capture-recapture studies are vital to answering key ecological questions. Is the population increasing or decreasing? Do more or fewer animals have a particular characteristic? In answering these questions, biologists cannot hope to capture and mark entire populations. And frequently, the populations change unpredictably during a study. Thus, increasingly sophisticated models have been employed to convert data into answers to ecological questions. This book, by experts in capture-recapture analysis, introduces the most up-to-date methods for data analysis while explaining the theory behind those methods. Thorough, concise, and portable, it will be immensely useful to biologists, biometricians, and statisticians, students in both fields, and anyone else engaged in the capture-recapture process.

    eISBN: 978-1-4008-3771-7
    Subjects: Zoology, Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Statistics

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-iv)
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-viii)
  3. List of Illustrations
    (pp. ix-x)
  4. List of Tables
    (pp. xi-xvi)
  5. Preface
    (pp. xvii-xx)
    Steven Amstrup, Trent McDonald and Bryan Manly
  6. One Introduction to the Handbook
    (pp. 1-21)
    BRYAN F. J. MANLY, TRENT L. McDONALD and STEVEN C. AMSTRUP

    In September of 1802, Pierre Simon Laplace (1749–1827) used a capture–recapture type of approach to estimate the size of the human population of France (Cochran 1978; Stigler 1986). At that time, live births were recorded for all of France on an annual basis. In the year prior to September 1802, Laplace estimated the number of such births to be approximately X = 1,000,000. These newly born individuals constituted a marked population. Laplace then obtained census and live birth data from several communities “with zealous and intelligent mayors” across all of France. Recognizing some variation in annual birth rates,...

  7. Two Classical Closed-population Capture–Recapture Models
    (pp. 22-35)
    ANNE CHAO and RICHARD M. HUGGINS

    This chapter reviews the classical models for closed populations (i.e., for situations where the individuals in a population remain the same while it is being studied) and the history of their development. The data structure and necessary notation are introduced in section 2.2 via a small data set on the captures of deer mice. Section 2.3 reviews classical two-occasion and multiple-occasion models, i.e., models for situations where two or more than two separate samples of animals are taken. Section 2.4 summarizes the limitations of these classical models and provides motivations for the more general models that are considered in chapter...

  8. Three Classical Open-population Capture–Recapture Models
    (pp. 36-57)
    KENNETH H. POLLOCK and RUSSELL ALPIZAR-JARA

    In the previous chapter closed capture–recapture models were considered for situations where the population size does not change during the study. When open-population models are used, the processes of birth, death, and migration are allowed, and therefore the population size can change during the study. Studies of open populations often cover extended time periods, and the population changes that occur are of great interest to ecologists and managers. The most popular model of this open model class is the Jolly-Seber (JS) model (Jolly 1965; Seber 1965, 1982; Pollock et al. 1990; Schwarz and Seber 1999), which requires that the...

  9. Four Modern Closed-population Capture–Recapture Models
    (pp. 58-87)
    ANNE CHAO and RICHARD M. HUGGINS

    The models discussed in chapter 2 for estimating the size of a closed population assume that on each capture occasion all animals have the same capture probability. If this assumption is violated, the estimators of chapter 2 may be biased and the estimated standard errors may be too small, resulting in artificially narrow confidence intervals and possibly misleading interpretations of the data. The bias could be severe when capture probabilities vary greatly among animals. To take account of factors that may potentially affect the capture probabilities, more realistic models are needed. In the present chapter models are classified as being...

  10. Five Modern Open-population Capture–Recapture Models
    (pp. 88-123)
    JAMES D. NICHOLS

    Capture–recapture studies of open populations involve multiple sample occasions at which newly captured animals are individually marked and identities of previously captured animals are recorded. Sample occasions are separated by time intervals that are sufficiently large that the population is expected to change between occasions. Hence, the population is said to be open to gains resulting from in situ reproduction and immigration and to losses from death and emigration.

    Two classes of models have been developed to estimate quantities of interest from the data resulting from studies of open populations. The first class can be referred to as conditional...

  11. Six Tag-recovery Models
    (pp. 124-141)
    JOHN M. HOENIG, KENNETH H. POLLOCK and WILLIAM HEARN

    Modern tagging models for estimating mortality rates of exploited populations derive from the work of Seber (1970), Brownie (1973), Youngs and Robson (1975), and Brownie et al. (1985). These models pertain to the case where tagged animals are killed when they are recaptured and there is no direct information on animals that die of natural causes (such as empty shells of mollusks). The authors cited above concentrated on the estimation of the annual survival rate, S, which is the probability that an animal alive at the start of the year will survive to the end of the year. These models...

  12. Seven Joint Modeling of Tag-recovery and Live-resighting Data
    (pp. 142-164)
    RICHARD J. BARKER

    Between 1985 and 1990, 6160 paradise shelducks (Tadorna variegata) were banded in a study carried out in the Wanganui Region, New Zealand. Molting shelducks were trapped in January and birds checked for tags. Marked birds had their number recorded and were then released; unmarked birds were marked and released. Between marking occasions birds were also reported shot by hunters, so the reencounter data represents a mix of live recaptures, for which the models of chapters 3 and 5 are suitable, and dead-recovery data, for which the models of chapter 6 are suitable. Because birds were reencountered in two ways, a...

  13. Eight Multistate Models
    (pp. 165-195)
    CARL J. SCHWARZ

    The original modeling framework for capture–recapture studies assumed homogeneous behavior among animals and was concerned with estimating parameters, such as survival or abundance, for a single uniform population. In many situations, this is unrealistic because animals within a population are not homogeneous with respect to survival and catchability, and heterogeneity in these parameters can lead to biases in estimates.

    In their key paper, Lebreton et al. (1992) developed a modeling framework based on partitioning populations into homogeneous subpopulations (groups) based on fixed, unchanging attributes, such as sex. These models and the AIC model selection framework (chapter 1) start with...

  14. Nine Examples
    (pp. 196-265)
    TRENT L. McDONALD, STEVEN C. AMSTRUP, ERIC V. REGEHR and BRYAN F. J. MANLY

    In this chapter we provide empirical examples of how to use the models described in earlier chapters to analyze real-world data sets. With numbers rather than symbolic notation, we illustrate some practical aspects of capture–recapture modeling. We provide explicit examples and instructions on the mechanics of model building, and illustrate how to set up analyses in program MARK. We hope that the examples provided in this chapter will reduce the anxiety that often accompanies attempts at new analytical approaches.

    Much of this chapter is built around capture– recapture data collected on the European dipper (Cinclus cinclus) (Marzolin 1988). This...

  15. Ten Capture–Recapture Methods in Practice
    (pp. 266-274)
    BRYAN F. J. MANLY, STEVEN C. AMSTRUP and TRENT L. McDONALD

    The authors of chapters 2 to 8 in this book have covered the theory and applications of capture–recapture methods from the simple two-sample, closed-population situations considered by Peterson and Lincoln, through to complex multisample, multistrata, open-population situations that can be modeled only using sophisticated computer software operating on a fast modern computer. In chapter 9, we have provided empirical examples of many methods described in earlier chapters. In this final chapter we summarize the methods that have been covered and provide some closing comments, aimed particularly at readers who are intending to use these methods for analyzing their own...

  16. Appendix
    (pp. 275-280)
  17. References
    (pp. 281-300)
  18. Contributor’s Notes
    (pp. 301-302)
  19. Index
    (pp. 303-313)