Does Peacekeeping Work?

Does Peacekeeping Work?: Shaping Belligerents' Choices after Civil War

Virginia Page Fortna
Copyright Date: 2008
Pages: 224
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7sv7j
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    Does Peacekeeping Work?
    Book Description:

    In the last fifteen years, the number, size, and scope of peacekeeping missions deployed in the aftermath of civil wars have increased exponentially. From Croatia and Cambodia, to Nicaragua and Namibia, international personnel have been sent to maintain peace around the world. But does peacekeeping work? And if so, how? InDoes Peacekeeping Work?Virginia Page Fortna answers these questions through the systematic analysis of civil wars that have taken place since the end of the Cold War. She compares peacekeeping and nonpeacekeeping cases, and she investigates where peacekeepers go, showing that their missions are crucial to the most severe internal conflicts in countries and regions where peace is otherwise likely to falter.

    Fortna demonstrates that peacekeeping is an extremely effective policy tool, dramatically reducing the risk that war will resume. Moreover, she explains that relatively small and militarily weak consent-based peacekeeping operations are often just as effective as larger, more robust enforcement missions. Fortna examines the causal mechanisms of peacekeeping, paying particular attention to the perspective of the peacekept--the belligerents themselves--on whose decisions the stability of peace depends. Based on interviews with government and rebel leaders in Sierra Leone, Mozambique, and the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh,Does Peacekeeping Work?demonstrates specific ways in which peacekeepers alter incentives, alleviate fear and mistrust, prevent accidental escalation to war, and shape political procedures to stabilize peace.

    eISBN: 978-1-4008-3773-1
    Subjects: Political Science, Law

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-vi)
  2. Table of Contents
    (pp. vii-viii)
  3. List of Figures, Maps, and Tables
    (pp. ix-x)
  4. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
    (pp. xi-xvi)
  5. One PEACEKEEPING AND THE PEACEKEPT QUESTIONS, DEFINITIONS, AND RESEARCH DESIGN
    (pp. 1-17)

    IN COUNTRIES WRACKED BY CIVIL WAR, the international community is frequently called upon to deploy monitors and troops to try to keep the peace. The United Nations, regional organizations, and sometimes ad hoc groups of states have sent peacekeepers to high-profile trouble-spots such as Rwanda and Bosnia and to lesser-known conflicts in places like the Central African Republic, Namibia, and Papua New Guinea. How effective are these international interventions? Does peacekeeping work? Does it actually keep the peace in the aftermath of civil war? And if so, how? How do peacekeepers change things on the ground, from the perspective of...

  6. Two WHERE PEACEKEEPERS GO I HYPOTHESES AND STATISTICAL EVIDENCE
    (pp. 18-46)

    THIS CHAPTER AND THE NEXT INVESTIGATE the question of where peacekeepers go: What distinguishes conflicts that induce international peacekeeping missions from conflicts that do not? Why were peacekeepers sent to El Salvador and Namibia but not to the Philippines or Palestine, for example? Why peacekeeping in Mozambique and, eventually, in Sierra Leone, but not in Bangladesh? What explains this variation across cases of civil war? This chapter draws on existing research as well as a theory of the demand for peacekeeping to develop a number of hypotheses. It then uses the data on peacekeeping in civil wars to test them...

  7. Three WHERE PEACEKEEPERS GO II EVIDENCE FROM THE CASES
    (pp. 47-75)

    THE STATISTICAL RESULTS IN THE PREVIOUS chapter provide some broad answers to the question of where peacekeepers go. They allow us to see patterns across the full universe of cases. But many of the statistical measures are crude proxies, and quantification likely misses nuances in the politics of where peacekeepers go. The case studies can shed more focused light on decisions by the international community and by the belligerents themselves about whether to send or accept peacekeeping. This chapter examines three conflicts, involving five attempts to maintain peace, in more detail to see why peacekeepers deployed in some cases but...

  8. Four A CAUSAL THEORY OF PEACEKEEPING
    (pp. 76-103)

    THE PROBLEMS WITH PEACEKEEPING are legion. Peacekeeping missions are often thrown into conflicts when the great powers want to be seen as “doing something” but do not really want to act. Mission mandates are often ambiguous, reflecting the lowest common denominator of agreement among sending states and among the belligerents themselves. Peace operations are usually improvised and ad hoc; they are too often planned at the last minute and are perennially understaffed, underfunded, and underequipped. “Muddling through has been the order of the day” in peacekeeping missions.ₑ Troop levels are based on what member states are willing to provide, not...

  9. Five PEACEKEEPING WORKS EVIDENCE OF EFFECTIVENESS
    (pp. 104-126)

    NOW THAT WE HAVE SOME SENSE of where peacekeepers tend to go and a causal theory of how they might affect the prospects for peace, we can evaluate whether they are, in fact, effective in helping belligerents maintain peace. As we have seen, peacekeepers are not deployed to civil wars randomly, but rather tend to go where peace is otherwise most difficult to keep. To assess their effectiveness accurately we therefore need to control for other factors that shape the likelihood that peace will last. Statistical analysis, which allows for such multivariate evaluation, is thus necessary to answer the general...

  10. Six HOW PEACEKEEPING WORKS CAUSAL MECHANISMS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE PEACEKEPT
    (pp. 127-171)

    CHAPTER 4 LAID OUT A THEORY of how peacekeepers might improve the chances for lasting peace. It spelled out a number of causal mechanisms through which the presence of peacekeepers might (1) change the incentives of recent belligerents, making peace more desirable or war more costly; (2) reduce the uncertainty and fear that drive security dilemma spirals; (3) prevent or control accidents or the actions of rogue groups that might otherwise escalate back to war; or (4) prevent political abuse by one side (generally the government) that might cause actors losing the peace to take up arms anew.

    Case studies...

  11. Seven CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS
    (pp. 172-180)

    THIS BOOK ASKS three empirical questions: Where do peacekeepers go? Does peacekeeping work? And if so, how does it work? This chapter summarizes the answers to these questions, drawing out implications for our understanding of the problem of recidivism after civil wars, and especially for policymakers trying to reduce it.

    The first question is important for evaluating the other two, but it is also interesting in its own right. While existing studies of this question have focused on choices made by the international community, I argue that choices made by the belligerents themselves are as important, at least for the...

  12. APPENDIX A THE DATA
    (pp. 181-186)
  13. APPENDIX B PREDICTING THE DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY OF MAINTAINING PEACE
    (pp. 187-190)
  14. REFERENCES
    (pp. 191-206)
  15. INDEX
    (pp. 207-214)