The business as usual and Climate Action Plan scenarios discussed in the previous section likely understate future emissions from British Columbia’s gas sector for two reasons:
1. The level of natural gas production is now forecast to be higher than estimated in the Climate Action Plan; all else being equal, greenhouse gas emissions will be higher. The underestimate occurred because the relatively low-cost ability to extract shale gas resources, which are now expected to dominate B.C.’s gas sector, was not then understood.
2. Shale gas from the Horn River basin has much higher levels of formation carbon dioxide than conventional gas production...