Towards the Syrian Nightmare?
Research Report
Towards the Syrian Nightmare?: The Critical Situation in Syria and Possible Scenarios
Ali Hussein Bakeer
Burç Köstem
Gülsüm Boz
Mehmet Hecan
Copyright Date: Jun. 1, 2013
Published by: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Pages: 102
OPEN ACCESS
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep02582
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  1. Front Matter
    Front Matter (pp. 1-2)
  2. Table of Contents
    Table of Contents (pp. 3-6)
  3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (pp. 7-12)
  4. INTRODUCTION
    INTRODUCTION (pp. 13-16)

    Currently Syrian regime is on the brink of being toppled because it is running out of options and has lost its strategic assets one after another. Therefore Syria is currently standing at a critical crossroads that can define the course of the current struggle going on inside Syria.

    While many experts maintain that Assad’s unflagging refusal of a political solution and the organized army’s steady retreat from its strategic ranks indicates that the regime will be toppled in the near future, others hold that while the regime is faltering it is still capable of prolonging the war.

    Important developments have...

  5. 1 GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION IN SYRIA
    1 GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION IN SYRIA (pp. 17-64)

    We have recently witnessedcertain significant developments regarding the attitude of the Syrian opposition in their collaborated efforts to topplethe Assad regime. The fact that some countries have criticized the Syrian opposition on their failure to overthrow Assad can be evaluated as an excuse towards evading responsibility in this regard. However, the Syrian opposition has of latedeveloped on political and military dimensionsand has decided to form a coalition in order to end these polemics and to achieve its abovementioned goal.

    The opposition has chosen to act in unison in order to develop, to close its ranks, to enable the integration among...

  6. 2 THE ROLE OF THE MINORITIES IN THE CONFLICT
    2 THE ROLE OF THE MINORITIES IN THE CONFLICT (pp. 65-84)

    The Syrian security forces withdrew from the north-eastern and north-western villages and towns on the Turkish border in July and August of 2012. They handed over the management of the region and the government organizations to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and some other Kurdish parties within the region. This has caused the issue of Syrian Kurds to resurface and ebcome more visible. However, the withdrawal of the Syrian forces was not a mere coincidence but a planned act based on certain objectives, on the part of the regime. Some of these objectives are as follows:

    Leading the troops withdrawn...

  7. 3 THE FATE OF ASSAD AND SYRIA
    3 THE FATE OF ASSAD AND SYRIA (pp. 85-92)

    The fact that the balance of power and the data in favor of the regime changed within the first year of the revolution indicates that Assad has gradually lost hopewith regards to achieving a possible victory, some considering this situation may cause Assad to leave (as a result of an agreement, an escape or an assassination).

    Again, the progress made by the revolutionaries has revived the hopes for a new era in Syria, in turn affecting the regional and international attitudes towards the issue. As a matter of fact, Russia has started to review its attitude towards Syria, and has...

  8. 4 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    4 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS (pp. 93-97)

    Today, Syria is on the edge of a critical inflection point. The most ideal solution for the future of Syria and the region seems to be Assad leaving power.

    However, Assad insists on remain in power overshadowedby the slow but stable progress of the FSA in various fronts.Unless the Assad regime is overthrown soon, Syria and the region may face a crisisthat could last for decades turning Syria into a failed state.

    The surest way to prevent the realization of the failed state scenario is that Assad and his supporters leave the country by a peaceful regime change. However, the...

  9. Back Matter
    Back Matter (pp. 98-101)