Derek M. Scissors
There are common factors across the globe that will drive net energy demand over time:
1) Energy resource endowment;
2) Macroeconomic development and growth;
3) Resource ownership rights;
4) The competitive structure of the energy industry;
5) The functioning of capital markets; and
6) Domestic and international politics.
Over our 2015–30 forecast horizon, these factors vary in importance by region. Most of the world’s major energy producers are in the Middle East, while the biggest net energy consumers are China and the European Union (EU). The United States is swinging from consumer to producer. Among truly powerful shifts in...