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Research Report

Conflict Prognosis: A Conflict and Policy Assessment Framework Part two

Luc van de Goor
Suzanne Verstegen
Copyright Date: Jun. 1, 2000
Published by: Clingendael Institute
Pages: 93
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Table of Contents

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  1. (pp. 1-2)

    In an attempt to come to a more coherent policy approach towards conflict situations in Third World countries, the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs has commissioned the Conflict Research Unit of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ to conduct a research on conflict prevention policy. The two main components of this Conflict Policy Research Project (CPRP) consist of an empirical ‘lessons learned’ exercise as regards Dutch policies towards six countries in conflict,² as well as the development of an instrument for conflict prognosis in the policy context. The overall goal of the CPRP is to study the current situation...

  2. (pp. 3-12)

    Security issues are moving up the international agenda as violent conflicts challenge the international community in various ways. First, armed conflicts are an international security issue of the first order as they may destabilize whole regions. This is the case in so-called Third World regions, but also in regions bordering Western Europe. Further, the civilian impact has increased drastically, and the humanitarian effects of armed conflicts often rise to levels that call for international intervention, be it on the humanitarian or the military level. Recent examples are the conflicts in the Balkans, but examples are also to be found elsewhere...

  3. (pp. 13-26)

    The application of the CPAF in the policy practice results in a number of products: a mission statement, a country profile, a conflict analysis paper (CAP), a strategic policy paper (SPP), and a plan of action (PoA). These products are closely and logically interrelated. The first two, the mission statement and country profile, need to be valued as prerequisites of the CPAF. These require a one-off time investment. They are considered the basis of conflict and policy assessment with the aim of formulating policy responses to situations where worrisome and deteriorating conflict trends have been identified. Furthermore, it should be...