This chapter will give a condensed overview of undertaken research on designing early warning models.10 It is not intended to judge the models on scientific criteria, to verify or falsify the methodology, the theoretic assumptions, or the indicators. Since the central research question in this report is examining the possibility for developing a ‘model’ to adequately translate warnings into policy, the key interest in this overview is the identification of leads as regards:
how to develop dynamic conflict profiles that explain indicators of instability;
how to relate these profiles to priorities of conflict prevention policy;
suggestions for operationally and logistically...