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Research Report

CONFLICT PROGNOSIS: Bridging the Gap from Early Warning to Early Response Part One

Luc van de Goor
Suzanne Verstegen
Copyright Date: Nov. 1, 1999
Published by: Clingendael Institute
Pages: 77
OPEN ACCESS
https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep05411

Table of Contents

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  1. (pp. [i]-[i])
  2. (pp. [ii]-[ii])
  3. (pp. [iii]-[iii])
  4. (pp. 1-3)

    This report is part of the Conflict Policy Research Project (CPRP) as conducted by the Conflict Research Unit of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ on the request of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The overall goal of the CPRP is to study the current situation with regard to (Dutch) conflict prevention policies and focuses on the development of an adequate policy mix to guide future interventions in conflict-ridden societies. This implies a further integration of theory and policy within the departments that primarily coordinate direct conflictrelated interventions, as well as the sensitization of a broader range of...

  5. (pp. 3-5)

    Conflict early warning models appear to comprise a continuation of research on the causes of conflict, as they aim for assessing risks of conflict escalation. The difference with this type of research, however, is the translation of the findings of such research into a standardized analytical model. By model, we refer to the identification of a clear set of indicators to analyze within a prespecified framework.⁴ In such models, the indicators should provide an assessment of the conflict potential and the chances of escalation into violent conflict. Here conflict is approached in such a way as to signify only violent...

  6. (pp. 6-15)

    This chapter will give a condensed overview of undertaken research on designing early warning models.10 It is not intended to judge the models on scientific criteria, to verify or falsify the methodology, the theoretic assumptions, or the indicators. Since the central research question in this report is examining the possibility for developing a ‘model’ to adequately translate warnings into policy, the key interest in this overview is the identification of leads as regards:

    how to develop dynamic conflict profiles that explain indicators of instability;

    how to relate these profiles to priorities of conflict prevention policy;

    suggestions for operationally and logistically...

  7. (pp. 15-17)

    The analysis of theoretical and practical models has indicated that early warning models still lack direct linkage with the policy practice. As Reychler (1999: 7) observes, current early warning systems pay little attention to opportunities for constructive conflict transformation, which is considered to be a central objective of conflict prevention policy. He argues that “most research money is spent on the development of systems for the early warning of threats, dangerous escalation or worst case scenarios. Practically no attention is paid to the development of early warning systems identifying the points in the conflict processes in which particular interventions would...

  8. (pp. 17-21)

    The objectives of the CPAF are to clearly define the mission, to catalogue and assess the policy and response capacity available, in order to deal more effectively with the outcomes of analyses. In the previous part theoretical models and attempts at application in policy practice were assessed according to these criteria. The analysis indicated that, although no such model exists in practice, various models and attempts contain elements that could be used for such a framework. The proposed CPAF, therefore, is not a completely new concept, but composed of parts of other models, and other research. The attempt at designing...

  9. (pp. 22-25)

    Despite the high levels of ambition concerning conflict prevention, little progress has been made in practice. Efforts to sensitize the policy practice for early warnings are often reduced to the question of how to convince policy and decision makers by addressing issues of validity and reliability of the warnings and developing new policies and operational guidelines. Whereas these may be valid and important activities, here an alternative approach was proposed in order to bridge the gap between warning and response. In this paper it has been argued that the instruments currently available leave enough room for conflict preventive actions when...

  10. (pp. 26-33)
  11. (pp. 34-74)