Food security is obviously not only about physical food availability achieved via production, but also about economic and physical access to food, food utilization and stability of availability, access and utilization over time.¹ Abundant literature has suggested to policy makers to move beyond rice crops. We are mindful of the fact that the future of food should include all crops, including native crops and orphan crops that often not only tend to be ignored by policy makers but lack investment in their development too (Naylor et al., 2004). However, our focus of this research is about the future availability of...

This research uses both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The qualitative methods include the use of extensive literature review to understand rice production context, climatic context, policies and identification of regions prone to extreme weather events in India, Thailand and Vietnam. The qualitative approach also uses the approach of ‘meta study’ of existing research on projected climate change in India, Thailand and Vietnam as well as rice-relevant studies in the regions. India, Thailand and Vietnam are chosen as they are the top rice exporters of the world.

Literature suggests that there are 40 existing global climate models and about various downscaling...

We have developed a generalised framework that guides our research (Figure 1). The first step includes a comprehensive review of rice crop production context in the last 100 years. We further analyse the downscaled climate analysis based on IPCC 2014 datasets. The abiotic stressors associated with climate change include changes in long term trends in temperature, rainfall, soil moisture contents and increasing trend in extreme events including heat, drought, salinity, and submergence/floods (Figure 1).

Biotic stressors include pests and diseases. The future of rice production will depend on water availability which is altered by changing natural climate and the ability...

The future of rice production should be a global concern because rice remains the most important staple food for Asia and continues to be an important crop for the African continent in recent years. Asia remains the center of global rice production where about 66% is grown by Southeast Asian and East Asian farmers. In South Asia, India has emerged as a global player in rice. Rice is still an important foundation of the Asian food economy that produces most of the world’s total rice. Besides driving the economy, rice has also been a source of income and livelihood security...

Bossino and van Der Eng (2010, p.1) argue that “current discussions of climate change are overly focused on the science underpinning environmental impact, with little attention to socioeconomic consequences. The economics of environmental change in particular is insufficiently informed by the lessons that past experiences can yield.” In fact, agriculture has responded dynamically to variation and change in climate system. Therefore, looking back to the past history of rice yield in Asia may provide insights for the future.

Worldwide, farmers and governments have made great strides in improving rice yield from 2.38 t/ha in 1970 to 4.49 t/ha in 2013...

IPCC Assessment Report 5 (Working Group I) has provided key conclusions on macro climate trend for South Asia, including Indian regions (Christensen et. al., 2013). There is already evidence of an increase in temperature and heat extremes across most of South Asia over the past century. Documented numbers of warm days show an increasing trend. On the other hand, the number of cold days has been decreasing. This warming trend will continue in the future at high confidence level (Ibid.).⁵

India is likely to experience increases in the range 1.7 to 2°C by the 2030s and 3.3 to 4.8°C by...

Section 5.1 shows variation of yield across states in India. Section 6.1 shows that temperature and rainfall varies across the states in India. Crops’ response to climate change depends on adaptation measures (e.g. irrigated versus rained). Figure 28 shows that under scenario A (with climate change adaptation), with the increase in temperature, irrigated rice fields can still adapt to climate change. Under scenario B (without adaptation, most likely rain-fed rice fields), yield is likely to be much lower. For instance, Punjab may experience yield losses of 15%, from 4.02 t/ha from the baseline in 2005, to only 3.9t/ha or in...

The Government of India has endorsed the Eight National Missions to deal with climate change including the “Sustainable Agricultural Mission”.⁶ This mission becomes the key instrument to building resilient agriculture. The strategies include firstly, identifying and developing new varieties of crops that can withstand abiotic stresses including warming and drought. The new expected varieties are also expected to be resilient to extreme weather including dry spells, flooding and submergence. The second step is to monitor and evaluate climate change and recommend new relevant policy and practices accordingly. The third strategy is to capitalise the use of existing knowledge, technology, geospatial...

Rice can feel the stresses arising from warming temperature. Exposure to extreme heated temperature can damage rice yield and grain quality. In general, rice is more sensitive to heat stress during the reproductive and ripening or maturing stages (Laborte et al., 2012). Exposure to climate shocks and vulnerabilities varies from one farmer to the other. Likewise, adaptive capacity of rice farmers also differs across sub-national regions. Access to irrigation services also varies from place to place (O’brien et al., 2004). Access to adaptation incentives (e.g. drip irrigation technology/facilities, rearing house and other production technology, access to credit, crop insurance and...

Adaptation requires both decisions that come at a cost and at no-cost. No-cost decisions include changing of sowing dates and certain agrotechnological crop management that do not involve financial transaction. However, this may not always hold true as governments should also invest in early warning systems that allow better prediction for (delayed) sowing. These adaptation strategies may also include altered crops and cropping systems to maintain sustained soil fertility and improved management practices. At the farmers’ level, identifying suitable response strategies is key to sustaining crops’ yield. These include adjustments in sowing dates, crops breeding and genotype selection, and improvement...