In the next five years – that is between the short to medium term – Africa’s security challenges may not be markedly different from what they are now. Among Africa’s most pressing security challenges are
increasing fragmentation of political authority across societies;
mounting political influence of armed substate actors;
fragmented loyalties of armed official military/security groups;
crises in food security and public health; and
increasing vigilantism as a societal response to the inability of ‘depleted’ and often discredited state security agencies to provide protection.
It is important to understand that in some instances individual states and subregions can experience more...