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Research Report

Energy Security:: Investment or Insecurity

Fatih Birol
Copyright Date: May. 1, 2007
Pages: 23

Table of Contents

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  1. (pp. None)
  2. (pp. None)
  3. (pp. i-ii)
    Terje Rød-Larsen

    The International Peace Academy (IPA) is pleased to introduce a new series of Working Papers within the program Coping with Crisis, Conflict, and Change: The United Nations and Evolving Capacities for Managing Global Crises, a four-year research and policy-facilitation program designed to generate fresh thinking about global crises and capacities for effective prevention and response.

    In this series of Working Papers, IPA has asked leading experts to undertake a mapping exercise, presenting an assessment of critical challenges to human and international security. A first group of papers provides a horizontal perspective, examining the intersection of multiple challenges in specific regions...

  4. (pp. 1-1)

    The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by consuming too much of it. Soaring energy prices and recent geopolitical events have reminded us of the essential role energy plays in economic growth and development and of the vulnerability of the energy system to supply disruptions. Safeguarding energy supplies is once again at the top of the international policy agenda. Yet the current pattern of energy supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental damage, including changes in global climate. Reconciling...

  5. (pp. 1-4)

    Energy trends are analyzed by creating a range of scenarios based on differing assumptions. The Reference Scenario of the World Economic Outlook series, for example, assumes that no new government policies are introduced during the projection period (to 2030). This scenario provides a baseline vision of how global energy markets are likely to evolve if governments make no extra effort to affect underlying trends in energy demand and supply. The appeal of such an approach is that it provides a platform against which alternative assumptions about future government policies can be tested. An Alternative Policy Scenario analyses the impact and...

  6. (pp. 4-9)

    Rising oil and gas demand, if unchecked, would accentuate the consuming countries’ vulnerability to a severe supply disruption and resulting price shock. Over time, consuming countries will grow increasingly reliant on oil and gas imports from an eversmaller group of suppliers—notably Russia and the big producers in the Middle East. OECD and developing Asian countries become increasingly dependent on imports as their indigenous production fails to keep pace with demand. Non-OPEC production of conventional crude oil and natural gas liquids is set to peak within a decade. By 2030, the OECD as a whole imports two-thirds of its oil...

  7. (pp. 9-15)

    In aggregate, the new policies and measures analyzed yield financial savings that far exceed the initial extra investment cost for consumers—a key result of the Alternative Policy Scenario. Cumulative investment in 2005-2030 along the energy chain—from the producer to the consumer—is $560 billion lower than in the Reference Scenario. Investment in end-use equipment and buildings is $2.4 trillion higher, but this is more than outweighed by the $3 trillion of investment that is avoided on the supply side. Over the same period, the cost of the fuel saved for consumers amounts to $8.1 trillion, more than offsetting...

  8. (pp. 16-17)
  9. (pp. 18-18)