The author wishes to thank Eric Heginbotham, David Shlapak, Thomas Christensen, David Lai, Roy Kamphausen, Travis Tanner, and Michael Glosny who provided invaluable guidance on both conceptual and empirical points. The author also gratefully acknowledges the research support of Daniel Alderman, Ginger Blanken, Eben Lindsey, Lyle Morris, and Chris Siegel.
This chapter finds that China has “learned” few lessons from ballistic missile usage per se in other historic cases. Instead, it has engaged in a degree of doctrinal innovation that moves well beyond the traditional “terror” attack usages of ballistic missiles.
China has not imported lessons directly from Iranian and...