The Indian Ocean (one of the world’s three oceans) runs from the eastern shores of Africa and the Middle East to the western shores of Australia and the Malay Peninsula, framing the entire southern shoreline of Asia. It is a key transit region for inter-continental trade in energy and commercial goods. Current estimates suggest that the annual value of two-way international trade passing through the Indian Ocean sea lanes is almost USD 1 trillion.¹ While its importance as a transportation hub is expected to increase further over the next two decades, it is also increasingly becoming a trade destination in...

Seven key parameters emerge from the debate on the future of the Indian Ocean (see Chart 4). The first two parameters describe the economic usage of the Indian Ocean’s SLOCs and their relative importance to key stakeholders. The second pair of parameters refers to the level of vulnerability of the SLOCs and the threat that various types of violent non-state actors pose to commercial shipping. The third group of parameters concerns the geopolitical future of the Indian Ocean, focusing on the maritime presence of key stakeholders, the nature of the relationships between them, and the maritime balance of power in...

The contemporary discourse on the Indian Ocean revolves around a range of parameters, drivers, and implications, some of which are sharply contested by experts in the strategic and foresight communities in both hemispheres, as our analysis has shown.

It is obvious, however, that the Indian Ocean’s security environment is heating up. Current and emerging powers are making across-the-board investments in expeditionary maritime power-projection capabilities (including infrastructure) and in sea-denial capabilities that serve a variety of peaceful as well as potentially confrontational purposes. Remarkably, India and China are investing heavily in nuclear-attack submarines. In terms of military capabilities, these submarines have...

The Indian Ocean is fast becoming a new global center of political and economic gravity, as it ties together the economic fortunes of emerging Asia, the US, and Europe. This Future Issue has analyzed key current and future developments in the Indian Ocean that will have important implications for security and business continuity. The analysis in this Future Issue warrants the following conclusions:

The safety of the Indian Ocean’s SLOCs is of vital importance to the growth of the emerging economies in South and East Asia and the world economy at large. The strategically located choke points are extremely vulnerable...

The contents of this report were discussed in various expert meetings with representatives of the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, the Advisory Council on International Affairs, and the Port of Rotterdam, and its relevance for the Netherlands was frequently debated, particularly with regard to the implications of the sea changes in the Indian Ocean for Dutch national security.

The existence and reality of these implications were obvious to all insiders. As the sixteenth largest economy in the world and the ninth largest export nation, the Netherlands relies on water transportation for 90% of its trade and 88% of...