The occupation of Mosul by the Islamic State (IS)1 has become an issue of global importance. The liberation of the city is seen as a symbol for defeating IS in Iraq and there is international pressure to press ahead and begin the process. Herein lies the problem; there are an estimated 1.2 million people trapped in the city and 800,000 in the surrounding areas.2 Great damage can be caused and many lives lost if there is not a proper plan put in place that addresses both the political and military aspects of the situation, as well as the complex dynamics...
The quote above demonstrates the importance of understanding the past in order to better understand the future and thus this section is used to understand the mistakes that led to the rise of IS with the purpose of preventing them from being repeated. However, the political marginalisation of the Sunnis has been well documented (Dodge, 2014; O’Driscoll, 2015, 2016b; Romano, 2014) and it is not the aim of this section to add any new knowledge to this debate. Rather, the aim is to demonstrate how this marginalisation affected the governance in Mosul and Nineveh and to locate the local politicians’...
As highlighted above the lack of functioning political means to address Sunni grievances has played a major role in the creation of radical entities in Iraq. Therefore, it is vital that political agreements on who will govern, how they will govern, and on what structure this will form are made prior to any liberation. IS represents an ideology, it represents Sunni marginalisation, it represents the fact that Sunnis have been denied the opportunity to address their concerns through political means. None of these elements can be dealt with through combat. Without establishing political agreements for governing structures to not only...
The aim of this section is not to focus on military planning (which already receives a lot of attention). Instead the focus will be on what is acceptable for the people and what is necessary for success with regards to establishing lasting peace. However, it is important to note that having spoken to military officers for this project, off the record, they have continuously highlighted that defeating IS militarily is not the hard part, the hard part is what comes after.
The recent battle in Fallujah is an example of how not to liberate a city and lessons must be...
This report proposes the creation of a federal region for Nineveh and it is therefore necessary to create a wider understanding of the historical reasons for this argument (Section 5.1.), as well as a theoretical understanding of federalism in the Iraqi context (Section 5.2.). Only once the historical context and the theoretical framework are established, is it possible to properly analyse federal governance in Nineveh (Section 5.3.).
The creation of Iraq (and Syria) stem from geostrategic imperialistic competition between the French and British, which ignored the ethnosectarian divide of the territory. These circumstances greatly impaired the fostering of a national...
The disputed territories of Iraq are those areas that had their borders changed by the previous regime and now involve disputes over ownership. They involve Kirkuk, Diyala, Nineveh, Salah al-Din and the provinces of the KRI. Constitutionally, there is a means to deal with these disputes; Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution (see Appendix I) calls for the implementation of Article 58 of the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) by the 31st December 2007 (see Appendix II). Article 58 calls for the normalisation of the disputed territories of Iraq, followed by a census and then a referendum on the future constitutional...
As already highlighted in Section 2.1. there was hardly any post-conflict reconciliation after the fall of Saddam, thus divisions were not addressed and former Ba’ath Party-affiliated members of the government institutions became isolated, which led to many of them joining radical groups. Post-2003 reconciliation was merely a slogan, one that was never implemented, and this cannot be repeated. In Nineveh Province there are many ethnic and religious groups, including Sunni and Shiite Arabs, Kurds, Christians, Shabaks, Turkmen, Yazidis, Kakeis, and Sabean Mandaeans. There are historical issues between these communities, as well as new ones that have arisen under the dynamics...
Many of the issues discussed in this report can be dealt with if a) funds are available b) emphasis is placed on planning and c) the various parties coordinate and work together. However, the political issues are harder to address, as political will and determination are required. There needs to be a political deal between the local politicians for the governance structure of the city and the wider province (including one between the former governor and the provincial council); the relationship and power dynamics between the central state and the province need to be agreed upon with the central government;...
