As Iran moves ever closer to a nuclear weapons capability, will other area powers such as Turkey decide to acquire their own nuclear weapons and embark on a crash nuclear weapons program to provide their own deterrent? Or will Turkey’s leaders trust in the United States’ extended nuclear deterrent for Turkey’s security? Col William G. Eldridge has explored this question in depth. To shore up the United States’ ability to convince the Turks to stay in the nonnuclear category, he recommends keeping the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and bilateral alliances with Turkey strong and, with Turkey, establishing a more...

Are US nuclear reduction policies and recent nuclear weapons handling mistakes by the US Air Force weakening the nuclear umbrella and provoking nuclear weapons proliferation by encouraging our allies to seek their own nuclear weapons? America’s nuclear forces are on a downswing. In 2009 the United States reduced its operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons by 80 percent of Cold War highs. Since 1991 the United States also reduced its nonstrategic nuclear weapons by over 90 percent. Similarly, France and the United Kingdom reduced their nuclear arsenals, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations declared that their remaining US-owned nuclear...

Recent attempts to justify upgrades or replacements for US nuclear weapons systems were criticized for failing to provide a sound argument for the purpose of these weapons in a post–Cold War world.¹ With the end of the Cold War, the dominant role for US nuclear weapons has become political uses rather than military uses. Political uses include discouraging attacks against the United States and extended nuclear deterrence. Extended nuclear deterrence means using the US nuclear arsenal to deter attacks on allies.

The security umbrella that nuclear weapons provide may aid nonproliferation goals—allies protected by US nuclear weapons do...

In a 2008 essay for the Turkish paper Today’s Zaman, Turkish author Mehmet Kalyoncu provided a scenario in which Turkey decides to build nuclear weapons.¹ He envisioned declining US presence and influence in Iraq coupled with an increasingly aggressive Iran. While completing a nuclear weapons program, Iran increases aggressive rhetoric against Israel, fuels unrest in Iraq, and encourages domestic strife in Riyadh, Damascus, and Cairo. As a result, the Turkish public pressures the government to address the declining regional security issues and criticizes the ruling party for its reliance on Western security alliances such as NATO, the United States, and...

Strengthening US extended nuclear deterrence for the Republic of Turkey requires strengthening the overall political relationship between the two countries. This is not an easy task since US-Turkish foreign policies appear to be diverging and the United States seems to have few levers to influence Turkish leadership decision making. This chapter offers options for strengthening US-Turkish relations in ways that may ensure the credibility of US extended deterrence, which may also provide disincentives for Turkish leaders to pursue a nuclear weapons program.

Because Turkish leadership perceives bilateral and international alliances as important guarantors of its security, the United States should...

For the case of the Republic of Turkey, US nuclear reduction policies and the US Air Force’s nuclear weapons handling mistakes in 2007 and 2008 did not significantly affect the credibility of the United States’ extended nuclear deterrent. Additionally, there is little evidence that disarmament trends or the mishandling events have encouraged Turkish leaders to consider developing a nuclear weapons program. Both the intentions and capabilities for a Turkish nuclear weapon remain low while the credibility of the US promise for extended deterrence remains good, but it may be weakening.

The reason that nuclear reduction and nuclear mishandling issues may...