The last 100 years have been called the American century.¹ This monograph is about the start of what may be the Asian millennium.² Russia is an unusual case since it is between Europe and Asia with aspects of both. Every indication suggests that, at some time in the next 20–40 years, Russia will reemerge as a world power. While some authors quibble about dates, there are few who argue about the eventual outcome.

This monograph is part of the Blue Horizons study commissioned by Gen T. Michael Moseley, the former US Air Force chief of staff, to provide "a...

The purpose of this monograph is precise but easily misunderstood. The clearest way to minimize confusion is to first detail what this paper is not trying to accomplish. First, it is not a prediction of what Russia will necessarily be like in 2030. The monograph paints a logical picture of how the United States may be challenged by a near-peer competitor with the capacity to destroy the United States. It is written based on Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ National Security Strategy. Second, there are many potential future paths for Russia. This path assumes energy prices will not decline, the trends...

With the fall of the Soviet Union in December 1991, Russia emerged as one of 15 newly independent states. Boris Yeltsin became the first elected president and promptly implemented numerous economic and political reforms that created a completely new theory of government. Under his leadership, Russia dissolved the Congress of People’s Deputies, which enjoyed supreme lawmaking powers under the 1977 Soviet constitution, and established direct presidential rule.¹

In 1993 Russia ratified a new constitution, which established a new parliament and a separate judicial branch. The new constitution combined elements of several Western democracies, including the United States and England, but...

As with the political realm, an understanding of the past is necessary to understand the future trajectory of the Russian economy. History provides significant insight into both the current structure of the Russian economy as well as the Russian government’s outlook towards future economic policy.

For the last 1,000 years, Russian history has been one of autocratic rule with the Mongols, tsars, and Soviets all exercising tight control of the Russian economy. Under the Mongols, Russian commerce predominantly served a single purpose—to pay tribute to the khan. Likewise, under the tsars, serfdom ensured that economic activity was solely for...

Built with the backdrop of dynamic internal political reforms and fueled by the economic reality of a cash-laden petroleum state, Russia is currently engaged in an effort to reform its military with the ultimate goal of returning the Red Army to its once revered status as a legitimate world superpower. This desire to return to a Cold War–style military force, one that is once again respected and relevant in the arena of international realpolitik, is evidenced both by increased rhetoric coming from the Russian leadership and also numerous antagonistic military actions directed by the Kremlin. Evidence of this new,...

Under Putin, Russia has moved away from democracy and toward a more “managed” (read autocratic) regime. The question is, can Putin’s current political system of sovereign democracy survive, or is it just a momentary stop on a trend line leading toward a failed state, a fully democratic, or an authoritarian regime? Further, after examining major trend lines that will drive the answer, is a resurgent Russia plausible given the projected political system in 2030?

The least likely scenario is a failed state. Russia has vast economic resources of gas, oil, timber, and precious metals that will serve as a buffer...

How should the US military prepare for a resurgent Russia? In order to answer this question, it is important to look at it from two different perspectives. First, what is the current American approach to warfare deficiencies that are being built into our future combat systems, bureaucracies, and force structure of which a resurgent Russian military might take advantage? To do this, one can look at today’s combat systems, along with those currently being designed and built for future combat, and project vulnerabilities that may arise as those systems and organizations come online. Due to the longevity of modern weapon...