Arguably a top tier concern for American foreign policy for more than a few years, Iran gets the meticulous attention of two distinguished Air Force scholars. Lt Cols Charles A. Douglass and Michael D. Hays are critical of the current American policy toward Iran and tell us why. More importantly, they point to elements necessary for an effective Iranian strategy. Their aim: “to change the fundamental calculus of the Iranian problem” to one beneficial for both Americans and Iranians.

Their calculation is based on the need to solve long-standing problems and recognition that a solution involves more than just a...

Clearly the world changed on 11 September 2001 (9/11), as did the US perception of the world. One thing, however, did not change—the challenge the United States has faced historically and faces today in its relations with Iran. What does 9/11 have to do with Iran? The answer: everything. To be clear, Iran had no direct connection with 9/11, but for the United States and the West to succeed in the war on terror, we must “solve” Iran.

Since 1979, and now perhaps more so than ever, US relations with and concerns about Iran dominate the American media and...

Iranians have a visceral connection to their national history.¹ An understanding of how that history shapes Iran’s view of its place in the world must underpin any effective US policy. A full account of Iran’s 4,000-year history plainly exceeds the scope of this study; however, by drawing on existing literature and commentary, policyrelevant answers can be posited for two very important questions. First, what are the dominant historic and cultural sources of Iran’s geopolitical perceptions and orientation? Second, what patterns are evident in Iran’s postrevolutionary strategic behavior?

To answer the first, an evaluation of formative historic events and crises will...

This chapter examines sociopolitical trends and internal power dynamics in Iran in order to reduce uncertainty about future Iranian behavior and inform an effective US strategy. More specifically, three broad policy-relevant areas are explored: current demographic, political, and economic trends in Iran; the regime’s internal decision-making dynamics, power centers, and the personal characteristics of influential leaders; and, finally, Iran’s attitude toward the nuclear program.

As this chapter observes, political decision making in Iran is often an opaque process that proceeds along both formal and informal lines. For clarity, we begin by identifying and defining the constitutional functions of three key...

This is the first of two chapters to set the stage for our policy proposal. Specifically, for our purpose here, how does the United States perceive recent developments in Iran? Also, how does it perceive Iran’s external behavior? This chapter should not to be considered a comprehensive introduction and review of documents that shape US perceptions of Iran internally or externally. Instead, the intent is to provide an overview and framework for future chapters.

As described above, it is absolutely critical for any future US policy maker dealing with Iran to understand how Iranians resent foreign domination, feel isolated, and...

Recent US policies toward Iran have been mixed. In a relatively short time, policy approaches included a hands-off attempt at containment, direct dialogue with Iran immediately following 9/11, and now an increasingly aggressive mixture of public diplomacy with punitive sanctions. This is an overview of US policies focusing on trends to be used in the subsequent strategy proposal.

Why begin with Dual Containment Policy (DCP) rather than the Reagan or Carter administration? Since 1979 most US policies were slightly different versions of a similar theme. These themes are to keep oil flowing, maintain a strategic political balance, and try to...

There are volumes of material on the mechanics of strategy formulation. The US strategy groundwork for Iran needs to consist of assumptions, reevaluated US goals for Iran, centers of gravity, and some basic planning mechanics.

Assumptions are important to any type of short- or long-term planning and allow one to move forward with a “most logical” course of events. The following assumptions are very strategic in nature. Joint Publication (JP) 1, Joint Warfare of the Armed Forces of the United States, defines assumptions as “intrinsically important factors on which the conduct of the contemplated action is based.”¹ The assumptions for...

Iran is at the very least a “difficulty” for the United States. As the great crisis leader Winston Churchill eloquently points out, there is an “opportunity” here. The current nuclear crisis with Iran seems to be deteriorating rapidly. As it does so, pressure is building on the United States, Iran, and even the international community to “do something.” There is an opportunity, because even though it seems there is a momentum that cannot be stopped, the pressure generated will create the environment needed for a successful strategy. The United States should seize this opportunity to develop and implement a successful...

The United States should immediately create an Iran policy planning committee to further refine and implement the strategy proposal presented in this study. For the greatest hope of success, the recommendations presented here should be implemented as soon as possible. This strategy proposal is based on sound analysis of historic trends.

Iran’s perceptions and patterns are based on historic roots of a sense of Persian greatness, resentment of foreign influence, strategic Persian-Shiite loneliness, and the emergence of pragmatic national interest replacing revolutionary ideology. Iran’s unique demographics, politics, personalities, power centers, and nuclear desire present key strategic considerations and frame the...