@inbook{10.2307/j.ctt7rzf3.8,
ISBN = {9780691148175},
URL = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt7rzf3.8},
abstract = {What is the probability of obtaining heads when tossing a given coin? What is the probability of the next president of the United States being a Democrat? What is the probability thatThe IliadandThe Odysseywere written by the same person?In posing these three questions, I have used the same word: ʺprobability.ʺ Yet a momentʹs thought clearly shows that it has a very different meaning in the three contexts. The first has to do with an event (the tossing of the coin) that can, in principle, be repeated many times under virtually identical conditions. We can ideally},
bookauthor = {Riccardo Rebonato},
booktitle = {Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently},
pages = {40--66},
publisher = {Princeton University Press},
title = {THINKING ABOUT PROBABILITIES},
year = {2007}
}