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The Future of Driving in Developing Countries

The Future of Driving in Developing Countries

Liisa Ecola
Charlene Rohr
Johanna Zmud
Tobias Kuhnimhof
Peter Phleps
Copyright Date: 2014
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 132
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  • Book Info
    The Future of Driving in Developing Countries
    Book Description:

    The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, varies quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. Researchers sought to determine the factors besides economic development that affect automobility, their influence on automobility, and what would happen to automobility in developing countries if they progress along similar paths as developed countries.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-8981-6
    Subjects: Technology, Sociology, Transportation Studies

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. ii-ii)
  2. Foreword
    (pp. iii-iii)
    Irene Feige

    All over the world, mobility of people is associated with increasing economic output and higher standards of living. As incomes grow, people travel more for business and leisure activities than they have in the past. This relationship holds true for industrialized, as well as for emerging, economies. Still, large intercountry differences in the amount that people travel are not explained by income growth alone. For example, at the same average level of income, people in Japan travel about one-third the number of kilometers (per capita) that people in the United States do. Such factors as spatial dispersion, car culture, fuel...

  3. Preface
    (pp. iv-v)
  4. Table of Contents
    (pp. vi-vii)
  5. Summary
    (pp. viii-xiii)
  6. Acknowledgements
    (pp. xiv-xv)
  7. Chapter One Introduction
    (pp. 1-3)

    In developed countries, travel demand has generally increased along with economic development. The historically high growth in passenger mobility-specifically, demand for personal vehicle travel-has leveled off in recent years with some signs of saturation. However, current evidence suggests that this saturation occurs at very different levels in different countries; high-income countries show different levels of motorization (personal vehicles per capita) and vehicle travel demand (vehicle-kilometers traveled [VKT] per capita),¹ even at similar levels of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. This indicates that, although economic development explains much of mobility development, other factors affect mobility as well.

    This study began...

  8. Chapter Two Evolutionary Paths of Mobility
    (pp. 4-11)

    We define mobility as the ability to travel from one location to another. Although greater mobility is not always associated with increasing standards of living or only positive outcomes, we do assume that mobility is generally desirable. People travel to meet important needs, such as employment, social interactions, religious services, and medical care.¹

    People meet their mobility needs through the modes available to them; in turn, these modes often shape the physical form of settlements. Cities or their component neighborhoods that were settled before motorized transportation was available developed around the need to walk or travel by horse, both of...

  9. Chapter Three Study Methodology
    (pp. 12-27)

    To make comparisons across countries and long periods of time, we needed to identify specific indicators and sources of data. Because we could locate neither perfect indicators nor perfect data sources, the selection of indicators and data sources was carried out to some extent simultaneously by reviewing what was available and making decisions based on the needs of the project.

    Although we use a straightforward definition of mobility-the ability to travel from one location to another-mobility can be measured in many ways, so it is necessary to identify specific indicators. An indicator is defined as a unit of data that...

  10. Chapter Four Historical Mobility Development in Four OECD Countries
    (pp. 28-33)

    In this section, we present a very brief synopsis of the development of transportation in each of the four OECD case-study countries. Obviously, these synopses cannot cover all the important aspects of a century’s worth of mobility development; the goal is to present a snapshot comparison that highlights how the four case-study countries have differed in their evolutionary paths.

    In Australia, personal vehicle ownership and travel are fairly high (about 650 vehicles per 1,000 people and more than 10,000 VKT per capita), but not at the level of those in the United States, which is similar in many regards. Until...

  11. Chapter Five Comparison of Factors Among the Four OECD Countries
    (pp. 34-55)

    Car infrastructure refers to the state of the country’s roadways, looking at both the quantity (in center-line kilometers) and quality of roads. All figures on the length of center-line kilometers of road are from The World Factbook (Central Intelligence Agency [CIA], undated).¹ Certainly in terms of the sheer volume (again in center-line kilometers) of roads, geographic size is probably the largest determinant; the United States and Australia have far more kilometers per inhabitant than Germany and Japan. All four countries now have well-maintained infrastructure, but they developed at different points in time. Australia has a high percentage of unpaved roads....

  12. Chapter Six Future Mobility Paths of Brazil, Russia, India, and China
    (pp. 56-71)

    At the workshop, each of the eight countries was represented by national experts who participate in the Institute for Mobility Research’s (ifmo’s) Global Mobility Monitor Network (GMMN).¹ We invited one expert for each OECD country and teams of two or three experts for each BRIC country (expert names and affiliations are provided in Appendix B). The difference in team size for the OECD and BRIC countries reflects the challenges in assessing the factors for the BRIC countries. For the OECD countries, the availability of information was generally better, partly because we needed only historical and current information. For the BRIC...

  13. Chapter Seven Conclusions
    (pp. 72-81)

    This section summarizes the answers to the three research questions we sought to answer in the introduction.

    Among the nine factors identified as influencing mobility in developed countries, two factors-car infrastructure and spatial dispersion–were identified as most significant. Lower average urban densities stimulate greater auto use. a relationship we see clearly in the much higher motorization rates of Australia and the United States during their motorization periods.

    In addition, the state of a country’s roadways, both in terms of quality and quantity (in center-line kilometers), significantly influences the demand for automobile travel. According to the case studies, this factor...

  14. Appendix A Data Sources
    (pp. 82-87)
  15. Appendix B Country Travel Demand Experts
    (pp. 88-91)
  16. Appendix C Factor Fact Sheets and Flag-Game Results
    (pp. 92-103)
  17. Appendix D Estimating the Parameters for a Gompertz Model of Vehicle-Kilometers Traveled Per Capita
    (pp. 104-107)
  18. Bibliography
    (pp. 108-113)
  19. Figures and Tables
    (pp. 114-114)
  20. Abbreviations
    (pp. 115-116)