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Before the Grand Opening

Before the Grand Opening: Measuring Washington State’s Marijuana Market in the Last Year Before Legalized Commercial Sales

Beau Kilmer
Jonathan P. Caulkins
Gregory Midgette
Linden Dahlkemper
Robert J. MacCoun
Rosalie Liccardo Pacula
Copyright Date: 2013
Published by: RAND Corporation
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  • Book Info
    Before the Grand Opening
    Book Description:

    The 2012 passage of Initiative 502 in Washington state removed the prohibition on the production, distribution, and possession of marijuana for nonmedical purposes and required the state to regulate and tax a new marijuana industry. This report uses data from multiple sources to estimate the total weight of marijuana consumed in the state in 2013 to provide decisionmakers with baseline information about the size of the state’s market.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-8408-8
    Subjects: History, Sociology

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-iv)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-x)
  4. Summary
    (pp. xi-xii)
  5. Acknowledgments
    (pp. xiii-xiv)
  6. Abbreviations
    (pp. xv-xvi)
  7. CHAPTER ONE Introduction
    (pp. 1-2)

    Discussions about fundamental marijuana policy reform are becoming very serious in the United States and abroad. While alternatives to marijuana prohibition have been discussed for years in dorm rooms and at dinner parties, these debates are now occurring in town halls, state capitols, and federal hearing rooms.

    On November 6, 2012, voters in Washington state passed Initiative 502 (I-502) which removed the prohibition on the production, distribution, and possession of marijuana for nonmedical purposes and required the state to tax and regulate the newly legal industry.¹ Outgoing Washington Governor Christine Gregoire signed I-502 into law on December 6, 2012. This...

  8. CHAPTER TWO Size of the Marijuana Market in Washington in 2013
    (pp. 3-16)

    Estimating the size of marijuana markets is becoming an increasingly common exercise for the United States (e.g., Abt Associates, 2001; Gettman, 2007; Kilmer, Caulkins, Pacula, & Reuter, 2011; Office of National Drug Control Policy [ONDCP], 2012; Kilmer et al., in press) and other jurisdictions (e.g., Bouchard, 2008; Bramley-Harker, 2001; Wilkins, Reilly, Pledger, & Casswell, 2005; Pudney et al., 2006; Wilkins & Sweetur, 2007; Legleye, Ben Lakhdar, & Spilka, 2008; Casey, Hay, Godfrey, & Parrott, 2009; Hakkarainen, Kainulainen, & Perälä, 2009; Kilmer & Pacula, 2009; United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2009; Werb et al., 2012; Caulkins & Kilmer, 2013...

  9. CHAPTER THREE Distribution of Past-Month Marijuana Users and Amount Consumed Across Counties
    (pp. 17-30)

    Knowing the range of total consumers in a state and the amount they consume is important for making decisions about how much production to allow and projecting tax revenue. However, understanding how these users are distributed throughout the state can be useful for making local decisions (e.g., how many retail stores to license). This chapter presents multiple approaches for estimating these values across Washington’s 39 counties.

    Our estimates are rooted in NSDUH and augmented with data from several additional sources. Every three years, SAMHSA releases past-month marijuana prevalence estimates for more than 300 “sub-state regions” throughout the country. Figure 3.1...

  10. CHAPTER FOUR Characteristics of Washington’s Marijuana Users and Their Methods of Obtaining Marijuana
    (pp. 31-46)

    This chapter presents an exploratory descriptive analysis of marijuana users in Washington, with a focus on how users acquire marijuana. While Washington’s biennial HYS describes characteristics ofstudentswho use marijuana, we are not aware of any attempts to describe the characteristics of all marijuana users in the state. Further, we are not aware of any research that has examined how users acquire marijuana in Washington.

    The chapter compiles information about marijuana user and purchase characteristics in Washington.¹ The first section outlines the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and includes some preliminary information about use of drugs other than marijuana. The...

  11. CHAPTER FIVE Conclusion
    (pp. 47-48)

    This report provides information about the Washington marijuana market before the anticipated opening of commercial marijuana stores and their associated supply chain. It presents consumption estimates for the entire state and each of its 39 counties for 2013. It also includes information about the characteristics of recent and heavy consumers, and how they obtained marijuana, as well as how they consumed it.

    Key findings include the following:

    The NSDUH reports that for 2010 and 2011 the average number of individuals in Washington who used marijuana or hashish in the past month was 556,000, with a 95-percent confidence interval of 475,000–650,000....

  12. Bibliography
    (pp. 49-52)
  13. Appendixes A, B, and C
    (pp. 1-35)
    Beau Kilmer, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Gregory Midgette, Linden Dahlkemper, Robert J. MacCoun and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula