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Assessing Irregular Warfare

Assessing Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Intelligence Analysis

Eric V. Larson
Derek Eaton
Brian Nichiporuk
Thomas S. Szayna
Copyright Date: 2008
Edition: 1
Published by: RAND Corporation
Pages: 86
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  • Book Info
    Assessing Irregular Warfare
    Book Description:

    Provides an analytic framework and procedure for the intelligence analysis of irregular warfare (IW) environments that can serve as the basis for IW intelligence curriculum development efforts. Defines IW in terms of two stylized situations: population-centric (such as counterinsurgency) and counterterrorism. Provides a detailed review of IW-relevant defense policy and strategy documents and a list of relevant doctrinal publications.

    eISBN: 978-0-8330-4702-1
    Subjects: Political Science, Technology

Table of Contents

  1. Front Matter
    (pp. i-ii)
  2. Preface
    (pp. iii-iv)
  3. Table of Contents
    (pp. v-vi)
  4. Figures
    (pp. vii-viii)
  5. Tables
    (pp. ix-x)
  6. Summary
    (pp. xi-xiv)
  7. Acknowledgments
    (pp. xv-xvi)
  8. Abbreviations
    (pp. xvii-xviii)
  9. CHAPTER ONE Introduction
    (pp. 1-6)

    The sponsor of our study, the National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC), is the primary producer of ground forces intelligence in the Department of Defense (DoD).¹ NGIC was created in March 1995, when the U.S. Army Foreign Science and Technology Center (FSTC) and the U.S. Army Intelligence and Threat Analysis Center (ITAC) were merged to form a Center of Excellence devoted to providing ground-component intelligence-production support to national and departmental intelligence consumers.² Headquarters, U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command (INSCOM), exercises direct operational control (OPCON) over NGIC, which is a major subordinate command of INSCOM. NGIC’s mission statement is

    [T]o produce...

  10. CHAPTER TWO Defining Irregular Warfare
    (pp. 7-18)

    Historical U.S. experience with internal conflicts around the world provides ample testimony to the challenges of conducting successful military operations in environments where military and political factors are tightly interwoven—consider, for example, the Philippines and China at the turn of the 20th century, Russia after World War I, Central America and the Caribbean in the 1920s and 1930s, the Chinese civil war after World War II, Vietnam in the 1960s, Lebanon in the 1980s, Somalia in the 1990s, and Afghanistan and Iraq in the present decade.¹ Intrastate conflicts are the most prevalent form of warfare in the world.² Thus,...

  11. CHAPTER THREE A Framework for Assessing Irregular Warfare
    (pp. 19-44)

    The preceding chapter discussed the possibility of viewing the IW operations of greatest policy interest as two ideal main types:

    Population-centric IW operations. These are characterized by counterinsurgency, foreign internal defense, and large-scale SSTRO campaigns of the kind being waged in Iraq; their success depends on some measure of security being established and a preponderance of the population being mobilized in support of U.S. aims.¹

    Counterterrorism operations. These run the gamut from tactically precise direct action or raids in a larger, geographically focused IW (e.g., counterinsurgency) campaign, to the type of campaign being waged against the Al Qaeda organization, a...

  12. CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions
    (pp. 45-46)

    The aim of this study was to develop an analytic framework for assessing IW situations that could subsequently be used as the basis of an educational and training curriculum for intelligence analysts charged with assessing IW situations.

    The framework we developed takes the form of an analytic procedure, or protocol, consisting of three main activities—initial assessment and data gathering, detailed stakeholder analyses, and dynamic analyses—that involve eight discrete analytic steps. The central idea is that this is an analytic procedure by which an analyst, beginning with a generic and broad understanding of a conflict and its environment, can...

  13. APPENDIX A A Review of Defense Policy, Strategy, and Irregular Warfare
    (pp. 47-60)
  14. APPENDIX B Irregular Warfare Analysis Doctrinal References
    (pp. 61-62)
  15. References
    (pp. 63-68)