IF MANPOWER planning is to be effective, it is essential that we have some overall perspective on the relation of supply to demand for a fairly long time into the future. We need knowledge of past and current trends that may continue to develop, of sudden changes in the rate or direction of these trends and the effects that such changes will have on the supply of college graduates and on the demands of the economy as a whole and of specialized fields within the economy, and of the areas of uncertainty that make more precise projections impossible. In the...

In this chapter, we will focus on the supply of and demand for graduates at the bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degree levels in the arts and sciences, divided into four broad areas: the humanities, the social sciences and psychology, the physical sciences and mathematics, and the biological sciences. The arts and sciences have long constituted the central core of the higher educational enterprise; each year approximately half of the first-level degrees, one-third of the master’s degrees, and two-thirds of the Ph. D.’s are awarded in one of these fields.

One of the characteristics of the arts and sciences is that...

In this chapter the projected supplies of graduates in seven professions are compared with the anticipated demands for high-level manpower in those professions in the next 10 to 15 years. All seven professions are large: together they employ about half of all professional workers. Although a number of other professional groups might have been included, these seven—law, medicine, engineering, elementary and secondary school teaching, social work, nursing, and the performing arts—were selected because they seem representative of the varieties and range of manpower problems that confront all professions.

The seven differ from one another in their patterns of...

The first section of this report dealt with estimates and projections of the supply of persons with advanced education and the demand for such persons in various high-level professions. In this section we will consider some of the dynamics that help to determine the quantity and quality of that supply. In particular, the personal and background factors that influence the individual’s educational progress, career choice, mobility, and professional achievement are explored. Whereas Section I was concerned chiefly with the overall manpower picture for the next ten or fifteen years, Section II inquires into some of the larger causal forces that...

The colleges and universities of the United States perform the dual function of educating students and of sorting persons for careers. As the college-educated become more sought-after for a wide variety of occupations, the sorting function becomes more important to our society. At the same time, because of the wide variety of our colleges and universities and the great diversity of our students, the process is very complex. This chapter reviews the ways in which our higher educational system sorts students for jobs, the points in the educational process where dropouts occur, and the personal and background factors that influence...

Manpower problems and needs give impetus to theory and research in occupational choice and vocational counseling. Conversely, knowledge about vocational development aids the work of the manpower specialists greatly, since it centers around the issue of how the supply for various fields is produced. It involves such questions as how career decisions are made, the kinds of careers that young people plan to enter, the points at which critical vocational decisions take place, and the ways in which vocational plans are implemented.

The different theories of vocational choice—formulated by psychologists, sociologists, and economists—have provided researchers with a set...

The careers of highly educated persons in the United States are characterized by a great deal of mobility, which takes several different forms. For instance, as the preceding chapter indicates, students as they mature may change their major fields and their career choices to make them more congruent with their personal characteristics. Many of these changes occur early in the student’s educational experience and shifts in occupational plans continue through the undergraduate college years.

Even subsequent to completion of the undergraduate degree, persons continue to exhibit mobility of various kinds. The most obvious kind is geographic mobility, which often begins...

While it is important to know whether or not a particular occupation is attracting a sufficient number of persons, it is even more important to know whether the entrants are of the “right” quality. Even though this is a central question, our ability to provide even approximate answers is very limited. Occupational performance, especially at the professional and managerial levels is very complex, and in many occupations the components of effective performance have not been defined or measured satisfactorily. For example, although there is an extensive literature on the components of effective teaching performance,¹ generally agreed-on criteria are lacking and...

In the two preceding sections we have, among other things, touched on some of the considerations that make it difficult to predict what the future supply of high-level talent will be. In this section, we will focus on three special groups that constitute important, though not always predictable, sources of supply. In the past, two of these sources—women and persons from lower socioeconomic levels—have been underutilized; definite steps must be taken if the potential talent in these groups is not to be wasted in the future. The third group—the foreign-born or foreign-educated—have long made substantial contributions...

Although studies of and concerns about manpower needs have often been limited to only one-half of the nation’s population—the men, the revolution in the employment of women makes it imperative that we also come to a better understanding of the educational and career aspirations of women. Increases in the proportion of women in the labor force and changes in their employment patterns have outmoded the skepticism sometimes expressed about the advisability of training women for the professions and specialized occupations.

The revolution in women’s participation in the labor force has been taking place over the past several decades. In...

In the preceding chapters the United States is characterized as an open-class society in which the predominant philosophy is that one’s achievement should be commensurate with one’s talents and skills, and independent of social origin and family background. The educational system is one of the principal social institutions through which this philosophy is manifested; it is the primary institution for talent development and an increasingly important channel for upward social and occupational mobility. The great diversity of the system allows it to accommodate persons of various talents, values, and financial means.

In spite of the prevailing national philosophy, however, and...

Immigration has been an important source of high-level manpower throughout the history of the United States. In recent years the number of immigrants reported as being professional, technical, and kindred workers has grown rapidly. In the half-century from 1900 to 1950, an average of more than 8,000 such workers were admitted annually; in the decade 1951 to 1960, this figure jumped to 18,000 annually; and the number has been increasing steadily from 22,000 in 1960 to 29,000 in 1965.¹ In 1960, as a result of this continued influx of professionally and technically trained immigrants, there were 287,000 foreign-born male and...

Throughout this book we have been concerned with the “goodness of fit” between the demands of society for highly trained individuals and the career choices of American youth and adults. This chapter reviews the various ways in which manpower market mechanisms operate to adjust supply to demand and examines the effectiveness of efforts to plan better adjustments.

As earlier chapters have indicated, a person’s career choice is strongly affected by such factors as sex, genetic potential, socioeconomic status, and geographic origin; but even among persons who share similar background characteristics there is considerable variability not only in the choice of...

It is always possible to conclude any discussion of manpower problems with a call for more research. Our knowledge of educational and manpower processes is always incomplete, and the possible problems for study are endless. Out of all these possibilities for study some are of key importance for better planning and administration, while others may be critical to a better understanding of social processes and individual career development. While the important questions to the administrator are not always congruent with the important questions that will fill in the gaps in our knowledge of human behavior, there is a substantial overlap....