Based on the analysis in the first part of this report, this section presents four plausible scenarios (based on the drivers and uncertainties discussed) for the Mediterranean basin to the year 2030. These scenarios are written in the past tense, as if a narrator is reflecting on what has transpired in the Mediterranean basin between the years 2016 and 2030. These scenarios are titled Erosion, Drawbridges, Power Play, and Club Med.
Erosion is the closest to a “default” scenario out to 2030—wherein events unfold along their most likely trajectories.
In the Erosion scenario, identity politics will force wrenching debates...