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Research Report


Lawrence Freedman
Pierre Hassner
Dieter Senghaas
Stefano Silvestri
Carlos Zaldivar
Edited by Nicole Gnesotto
Copyright Date: Oct. 1, 1993
Pages: 45
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Table of Contents

  1. (pp. None)
    Nicole Gnesotto

    For more than two years, wars and atrocities all too reminiscent of another epoch have set in--perhaps permanently--in the heart of Europe. Yet the Continent is for the most part focused towards its prosperity, its restored security and the extension of fundamental liberties. This coexistence of peace and war is not attributable solely to the collapse of the former Yugoslavia. In the former Soviet Union as a whole the pattern is echoed in one republic or another and threatens at any moment to spread to Russia itself, or to involve Russia and one or other of those republics.

    For over...

  2. (pp. None)
    Pierre Hassner

    It would be impossible to introduce a work dealing with European conflict prevention without evoking Raymond Aron, the author of Peace and War, but also of The Century of Total War, and again, the phrase of his which dates from 1947 and was restated, on the eve of his death, in Les dernières années du siècle: ‘peace impossible, war improbable’.

    Is that expression which was valid during the Cold War decades still valid today? Have the upheavals of 1989-90 brought peace or war? The paradox is that, having emerged from the inevitably contradictory Cold War situation, Europe has found itself...

  3. (pp. None)
    Dieter Senghaas

    Nationalist movements do not appear on the political scene unheralded. They all stem from grievances that are neither simply short-term nor related only to the politics of the day.

    We can distinguish three kinds of background to these grievances. Like the Catalans in Spain, the Slovenes and Croats in the former Yugoslavia felt they were being exploited by the rest of the nation. For a long time the Slovenes in particular asserted, with some justice, that there was a constant flow of resources out of their relatively highly-developed region towards the less developed parts of Yugoslavia, and that this was...

  4. (pp. None)
    Carlos Zaldivar

    The following are some thoughts on possible diplomatic action and initiatives to prevent potential conflicts in present-day Europe developing into open crises. From a positive viewpoint, they attempt to outline a European strategy for the stabilisation of the Old Continent.

    The degree of stability and prosperity in Europe in the 1990s will depend on the answers to questions such as these: How can we combine processes for conserving and, in some cases, restoring national identities with processes leading to the development of transnational bodies? To what extent will the latter be uniform or heterogeneous? Who will they include, and when?...

  5. (pp. None)
    Lawrence Freedman

    Europe still remains divided along the line of the old Iron Curtain, to some extent even in Germany, but in a manner that reveals the legacy of history rather than differences of ideology. On the eastern side of the line there is no longer a cumbersome monolith but instead geographical divisions which reflect variations of ethnicity and religion, economic philosophy and pre-communist political traditions. Post-communist Europe is weak, some parts of it chronically so, and the prospects for improvement are patchy. The current gloom should not blind us to areas of real achievement--but this is a part of the world...

  6. (pp. None)
    Stefano Silvestri

    The restructuring of the international political and security order which began in 1989 is still at a very early stage. Any prediction or analysis of future policy patterns and choices is based on many uncertain assumptions. One thing is certain, however: although after more than forty years the Cold War has finally ended, new conflicts and wars are erupting, compromising the security and well-being of the peoples of Europe. The global threat from the East is fading away, Western Europe is no longer the venue for full-scale military confrontation, a region frozen strategically and politically, but other risks and crises...