THE SADRIST MOVEMENT has steadily fragmented as a result of the Surge, competition among internal factions, and Prime Minister Maliki’s consolidation of power.

Deliberate Coalition and Iraqi military operations, and Iraqi political maneuvers, have severed the political, military, and social strands of the Sadr Movement, which no longer co-exist in the same entity and likely will not recombine in 2009.

While the political and military power of the movement has declined, its traditional constituency — the urban Shi’a poor and rural Shi’a tribes — remains a large and politically-valuable electorate.

Two main factions within the movement now compete for control...