The last 100 years have been called the American Century.¹ It was a century notable for its global strife, which in the wake of two world wars saw the collapse of the Soviet Union and the birth of many new nations. While some were viable, many began with few resources and poor capital reserves. They were and are still at risk of failure. This monograph is about how the world, particularly the United States and its Air Force, will deal with the potential global consequences of a failed state whose principle export commodity is also of vital interest to the...

A state fails when it suffers “the loss of physical control of its territory; [its] monopoly on the legitimate use of force; the erosion of [its] legitimate authority to make collective decisions; an inability to provide reasonable public services; and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community.”¹ The 2007 Failed State Index, compiled by the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, identified these indicators of a failed state and then ranked the nations of the world from those most to least likely to fail based on institutional corruption, criminality, the ability...

Nigeria is a mosaic of dramatic demographic forces fused together by the early twentieth century machinations of the British Empire. Brought under colonial rule in the late nineteenth century, Nigeria relished the independence it received in 1960. Invigorated by the discovery of oil in 1956, the fledgling nation hoped for a bright future. Instead, the young state fractured through corruption and took the next half century to achieve some semblance of stable self-governance.

Nigeria is comprised of approximately 350 ethnic groups, more than any other nation on the vast African continent.¹ Four main groups make up the majority of this...

According to the CIA’s World Factbook, “Nigeria is a federalized constitutional democracy which boasts a gross domestic product of over $165 billion (2009 est. official exchange rate).”¹ Yet despite this outward appearance of a representative democracy with a robust growing economy, between 52 and 72 percent of Nigerians live on less than one dollar per day.² The most prominent reason for this seeming paradox is the corruption pervading Nigerian society. As stated previously, past leaders have been more concerned with lining their own pockets than with providing Nigeria’s populace with good governance and basic human services.

Nigeria is also a...

Nigeria has been called the best example of the “paradox of plenty.” Its natural resources, especially its light “sweet” crude oil, create great wealth that begets “extravagant corruption, deep poverty, polarized income distributions, and poor economic performance.”¹ Largely because of this paradox, Nigeria has not achieved its economic potential.

Instead of capitalizing the revenue from its oil sales to grow into a strong, stable, and democratic country, Nigeria has instead become infamous for its numerous military coups, lawlessness, rampant corruption, extreme poverty, and ubiquitous 419 fraud schemes.² The US State Department views Nigeria’s lack of economic development as a result...

President Obasanjo published Nigeria’s first defense policy in 1979. At that time he tasked the Nigerian military with four primary functions: preserving Nigeria’s territorial integrity, contributing to national emergencies and security, promoting collective security in Africa while furthering Nigerian foreign policy, and contributing to global security.¹ Thirty years later, the responsibilities of the current Nigerian military remain the same as iterated in President Obasanjo’s 1979 national defense policy.²

Consistent with its prescribed responsibilities, Nigerian military forces have operated outside the country only in support of peacekeeping efforts. These efforts began nearly simultaneously with independence, with Nigerian peacekeepers assisting in the...

This chapter posits potential future events that could lead to Nigeria’s catastrophic failure in or near the year 2030. Once dubbed the Giant of Africa, Nigeria’s lack of unifying national identity, history of corrupt governance, religious and cultural schisms, and shifting demographics may cause the state, over time, to break apart.¹ The factors discussed below describe current and potential deteriorating trends in cross-cutting human social issues. Figure 9 graphically depicts how these various trends could coalesce into a situation where Nigeria as a state could catastrophically fail.²

This chapter is not a specific prediction of the future or a depiction...

With Nigeria on the brink of civil war, the global community, particularly the United States and the nations of West Africa, is faced with the difficult choices of if, who, how, and when to intervene. If the president chooses to intervene, then the United States will need to consider if the UN has sanctioned an action. If so, what limits have been imposed? What capabilities will allies or coalition partners bring to the fight and what do they need to be helpful partners? If the United States must stand alone, what technological capabilities will it require to be successful? Also,...

This body of work, while focused on Nigeria, explores dynamics that exist in many other failed and failing states. This scenario could have just as easily been about a nuclear-armed Pakistan, which presents vexing and extraordinarily dangerous challenges.¹ Whether these dynamics lead to the failure of any particular state has much to do with the quality of governance, the wisdom of national leaders, the assistance and support of other nations and international institutions, and a commitment by the people to secure for themselves and their posterity a life and nation they can be proud to call their own.

The history...